KSA’s silent revolution: is MBS an ‘Arab Deng Xiaoping’?

The recent rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, brokered by China, has drawn attention to the huge geopolitical change taking place in the Middle East, with China displacing the US as an ‘honest broker’ in disputes. What is less talked about and which is actually an epochal, tectonic shift in the Middle East is the remarkable transformation in Saudi state and society — actually, a silent revolution spearheaded by their young reformist Prime Minister and heir apparent, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS). A once conservative, almost obscurantist monarchy is slowly but surely being transformed into an open, liberal society, where women’s rights now go hand in hand with Saudi Arabia’s leap into a 21^st Century hi-tech, digital economic hub in the heart of the Muslim World.

Interestingly, the closest example of such a transformation is China’s ‘Reform and Opening Up’ initiated by the great visionary leader, Deng Xiaoping, four decades ago which changed China from a poor, weak and isolated country into a rich, strong, global leader that today competes with US.

Is MBS embarked on a similar path to assume the mantle of an ‘Arab Deng Xiaoping’?

Comparing the two reformers, certain similarities stand out. Both Deng Xiaoping and MBS demonstrated single-minded determination in pursuing what they felt was a necessary ‘course correction’ for their respective countries to move forward and change lives of their people for the better. Both were products of an entrenched and closed system, which they felt needed reform and overhaul. Both showed a pragmatic streak and a practical ‘can do’ approach, dispensing with ideology, which earlier influenced most decisions. Deng Xiaoping famously emphasised to ‘seek truth from facts’. Both successfully unloaded political ‘extra baggage’ to move forward — Tiananmen 1989 in the case of Deng Xiaoping and Khashoggi 2018 in the case of MBS. Both produced economic visions of a better tomorrow through focus on ‘model’ cities as success stories to showcase the changes (Shenzhen in China and Neom in Saudi Arabia). Both reformers shifted their countries foreign policy focus from a narrow, ideological prism to a broader, inclusive globalist worldview, prioritising trade, investment, reconciliation and education. Both had to overcome Western sceptics, who were convinced that neither Deng nor MBS could overcome the odds which they inherited by building anew and presiding over a peaceful, silent revolution in their respective countries!

China’s entry into the international system has managed to lift 800 million out of poverty within two generations, provided for a better quality of life for their people, and today, 130 out of 193 members of the UN have more trade with China than they have with the US. Reinforcing this domestic transformation is a foreign policy of peace and connectivity, with initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Global Development Initiative (GDI), which are mainstays of China’s march to modernisation.

Similarly, Saudi Arabia has embarked on a process that is focused on a people-centric development approach which is seeking to propel the Kingdom into the 21^st Century, with MBS seeking progress on a tripod of trade, technology and tourism.

What are the implications of the Silent Revolution in Saudi Arabia for the Muslim World, which is at the centre of gravity in world politics?

Three are noteworthy. First, by bidding goodbye to clerical control of domestic decision-making, Saudi Arabia is no longer a theocratic state, rather moving towards a more vibrant society that is inclusive, not dictated by a ‘killjoy’ mindset or suffocated by antiquated harsh regulations, with a general openness of society, where women’s rights and youth’s outlets in sports and culture are now accepted as the ‘new normal’.

Second, given that the Muslim World’s politics was defined for the past four decades by an ideological foreign policy of Saudi Arabia with its triangular mixture of money, militancy and madrassas, often peddling conflicts with the ‘other’, the manifestation of which was an unending and debilitating proxy war with its traditional rival, Iran, the result was destabilising for the entire region, ranging from Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Lebanon and Yemen, even extending to non-Arab regions like Afghanistan and Pakistan. Of course, Iran too willingly played the game of the proxy wars, with its own ideologues aggressively ‘marketing’ their theology! Thankfully, that phase has now come to an end, which is very positive for peace, stability and harmony in the Muslim World.

Third, a significant component of MBS’s Silent Revolution is that Saudi Arabia is no longer an extension of American foreign policy strategy in the Middle East, as was the case in the past. From funding the Afghan jihad (Saudi Arabia provided matching funds worth $2.1 billion to match CIA’s supply of arms and cash for the Afghan Mujahideen) to combating Iran to supporting the Contra rebels in Nicaragua, Saudi Arabia always came in handy for Washington’s foreign policy adventures. Saudi Arabia was sometimes viewed as the American ATM with a ‘have cash, will dispense’ approach at the behest of Washington power brokers. That is no more the case, much to the shock and chagrin of the American Establishment.

MBS rejected Biden’s request to increase oil production to offset the energy shortages caused by the war In Ukraine on which Saudi position is nuanced, bordering on neutrality. He has agreed to be an enthusiastic partner of China’s BRI, willing to trade in yuan, he rejected the US boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics last year and he’s still refusing to recognise Israel, despite US pressure to the contrary.

The Saudi Silent Revolution augurs well for the Muslim World as most Muslims take their cue from the guardian of the Holy Places, on what kind of society to build and how to place Islam in the quest for modernisation in the 21^st Century. MBS has set an excellent example by squarely presenting the two as compatible in building a better and progressive tomorrow for their people. Islam and modernity can not only coexist as they now do in Saudi Arabia, but these can be ingredients of competitive Muslim societies who are seeking partnerships with the developed world in education, science, technology, human rights with rights for women and equality for minorities that Islam professes and practises and which is in consonance with the needs of the 21^st Century.

The political coming of age of MBS as the architect of a new, modern, proud and sovereign Saudi Arabia was best evident in his landmark interview in April 2022 with the influential The Atlantic magazine published from Washington, DC. When asked for his reaction that President Biden is “treating you like a pariah”, MBS responded with casual confidence: “I don’t care!” Three months later, in July 2022, President Biden had to eat humble pie when he visited Saudi Arabia to meet and pay homage to MBS, a reflection of a new reality of how the world and Saudi Arabia have been transformed.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 14^th, 2023.

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