Management of chaos

A chaos is a complex phenomenon. It produces disorderliness which is often coupled with uncertain results and surprises. The actions leading to chaotic situation constitute the basis of its format and future direction. These situations may be natural or artificial or a combination of both. The art of controlling a chaos determines how it can be used as a tool to further one’s aims and objectives. In case a chaos is triggered by a natural catastrophe such as an earthquake or tsunami or floods, a widespread disruption across the country or a part thereof ensues. This causes an uncontrolled chaotic situation as hundreds of houses are demolished, thousands of people are rendered homeless and nationwide communication means are destroyed. It requires concerted efforts on the part of the government to mobilise its resources through its institutions to register a well-structured and coordinated response. Hence management of chaos is executed in a stepwise manner. The real problem crops up when the chaotic situation is artificial and is engendered by a series of manmade interventions in the political, economic or security sphere of a country. Its control though appears possible, the situation may be manipulated by external actors to make its management as difficult as possible. Such a situation is not only dangerous but it also creates a range of possibilities of augmenting dissension within a country.

A low-level chaos is created by a series of sectarian killings in which one sect is favoured against another. The sectarian friction is increased in intensity which might lead to a tit-for-tat action from the other sect. Such a chaos creates disturbance in a limited geographical area which is often amplified over social media platforms. The operators of the chaos often do this to crush a sect due to its overweening security threats. The spillover effects of the chaos are spread to other regions and areas thus disturbing the peacefulness and tranquility of these districts. The reaction from the oppressed sects sometimes appears as a prolonged sit-in which further complicates the national harmony and strengthens the sectarian divide. The armed gangs of sectarian outfits are rife in such an environment, thus challenging the writ of the state at will. At the moderate level, the chaos is engineered by belittling an institution or institutions of a country on the basis of political expediency or on account of strategic security concerns. This creates a negative perception about the institution or institutions among the masses. The control of such a chaos becomes problematic once erosion of institutional prestige creates a void in social setup. The vacuum is taken over by masses or undesired actors which produces severe damage to national unity. For example, a series of changes to the judicial system and the balance of powers in Israel were proposed in January 2023. The reforms would curtail the authority of the Supreme Court and give politicians greater powers over the selection of judges. The effort has been spearheaded by the Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Justice. This has invited an unprecedented public outrage resulting in countrywide demonstrations against the reforms. As the chaos gets out of control, the government announced slowing down passage of legislation in the parliament.

In the most acute form of an artificial chaos, state institutions are pitched against each other in the midst of prevailing turmoil. The friction so produced engages the polity and results in demeaning one institution in favour of another. It also creates factionalism among the public as they rally behind their institution of choice. A tug of war also continues. As a result, the key actors try to manage the chaos so that it complements their ambitions. Here, the public reaction holds the key as it can lead the chaos to a point where it becomes unmanageable, leaving its managers with few options. If the standoff continues for a longer period of time, the operators can devise a brutal strategy to crush the local dissent to install stability. An enraged public reaction, however, can jeopardise the situation perpetually leaving behind nothing except the chaos.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 8^th, 2023.

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