Pollsters’ favourite

Despite his legal troubles and increasing fondness for throwing around baseless accusations on his critics and rivals, it seems nothing affects the popularity of former prime minister Imran Khan, as another survey finds him to be miles ahead of any other party chief in terms of the average citizen’s perception. In fact, Imran is the only one who has a net positive rating, meaning more people have voiced strong disapproval of the others than approval, although the large share of negative ratings for Imran also shows the divided nature of our politics — everyone is either good or bad, there are no acceptable ‘other’ options except for voters’ personal favourites.

But the survey, published by Gallup Pakistan, also suggests that some fissures exist, because 53% of respondents have expressed inclination to support a new party “containing honest politicians and technocrats”. Another interesting statistic in the survey is that over half of PTI party workers say they will leave the party if such an alternative becomes available — the highest share among political party workers. This suggests that while Imran remains popular, it is at least partly due to a perceived lack of other options, which even Imran’s detractors admit is a legitimate complaint. After all, while the average citizen may blame the PDM for the state of the economy and experts may hold a more nuanced opinion that the incumbents inherited a broken economy and should only be blamed for failing to fix it, the fact is that the PDM has failed to do its most important job.

However, it should also be noted that one leader’s popularity does not always translate into election victories. Demographic issues can often skew surveys, such as if the supporters of one party are concentrated in a handful of constituencies. Also, while Imran keeps contesting and winning by-elections, in the general elections, if he actually wants to be PM again, he will have to find enough other electable PTI candidates, rather than contesting on 250-odd seats himself.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 9^th, 2023.

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