Preparing for Covid resurgence

Pakistan has joined a long list of countries concerned by a potential new wave of Covid-19 triggered by the new Omnicron subvariant surging through China.

Despite China’s remarkable success in controlling the initial outbreak of Covid-19, its use of extreme lockdowns has come back to haunt it as infection-based immunity rates are low, and even vaccination rates among certain groups are still relatively low — only 66% of people over 80 were fully vaccinated by mid-November, and only 40% of the same group had gotten a booster shot — despite the overall vaccination rate being well over 90%.

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the National Institute of Health (NIH) are developing plans for hospitals and building vaccine stocks to ensure that any new outbreak can be nipped in the bud. But a doctor connected with the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) has already suggested that this may not be easy, as he implored people to get vaccinated and boosted while also warning that it was uncertain how the new variants would behave in Pakistan since “viruses behave differently in different environments”.

While the doctor did not explicitly say it, there has also been long-running concern due to the varying quality and effectiveness of the vaccines available in Pakistan, and the recent outbreak in China has exposed the weaknesses of several vaccines against Omnicron and its subvariants.

Given Pakistan’s already-low vaccination rates of under 60%, things could go awry very quickly. So while the top managers at the NDMA and other bodies involved in Covid-19 prevention and response may publically “express confidence” in preparedness levels, we have known for a while now that the only time our governments explicitly tell us they are trying to avoid “creating undue alarm”, the time for due alarm is often well in the past.

After all, despite knowing that the new variant will almost certainly come from abroad via air travellers, no new testing measures have been ordered at airports.