Ahead of general elections scheduled in January 2024, Bangladesh is experiencing surge of political schism and violence. Led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), around a hundred thousand demonstrators in Dhaka on December 9 demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and installation of a neutral caretaker government for holding free and fair elections. Not only did the opposition resign from the National Assembly but also blamed the Awami League (AL) government of cheat, fraud and fascist governance during its 15 years or so rule.
BNP spokesperson Zahiruddin Swapan told AFP: “Our main demand is Sheikh Hasina resign and parliament is dissolved and let a neutral caretaker government step in to hold free and fair elections.” Surge of violence was witnessed on December 6 with one person being killed and several others injured when police fired at BNP demonstrators in Dhaka, augmenting anti-government sentiments among people.
Why is there popular resentment against Sheikh Hasina and how is the AL regime trying to quell anti-government demonstrations? Will BNP and other opposition parties give a tough time to Sheikh Hasina in 2024 general elections? The government retaliated by arresting BNP activists including its secretary general. Popular demonstrations against Sheikh Hasina’s government got an impetus because of increase in fuel prices, growing loadshedding and rising cost of essential commodities. Furthermore, 15 western embassies issued a joint statement, calling on the Bangladeshi government to allow free expression and peaceful assembly. Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and Association called upon the Bangladeshi authorities to guarantee the right to peaceful assembly and refrain from using excessive force against protestors.
Current spell of demonstrations against the AL government is the largest since 2009 and reflects a Sheikh Hasina’s growing unpopularity who has been in power for almost 15 years. Under the cover of ostensible economic growth and development, the AL government is overconfident but is accused by her opponents of resorting to worst type of fascist methods to crush dissent. According to BBC news of December 11, “Human Rights Watch says it has heard evidence of the existence of secret detention sites in Bangladesh, and has called on the government to investigate these allegations and release anyone still being held at them. We have heard they are often underground, with very little natural light. Some people have said they can hear other people being tortured. It’s very disturbing.”
BBC further reported that, according to Bangladeshi human rights groups nearly 600 men have been victims of ‘enforced disappearances’ by the Bangladeshi security forces since 2009. The UN working group report published in August 2022 revealed: “There were 72 victims of enforced disappearances, who remain missing in the country.” With such facts reflecting the use of brutal force against opponents, the narrative of Sheikh Hasina that opposition parties want to destabilise Bangladesh by siding with terrorist and pro-Pakistan elements will not work. For 15 years, AL used coercion and fear to silence opposition but it seems it cannot tackle the rising tide of popular chagrin or use strong armed tactics in forthcoming elections.
AL plans to hold rallies against what it terms conspiracies hatched by BNP and banned Jamaat-i-Islami to thwart economic progress in Bangladesh. Threats like repeating the August 15, 1975 execution of the entire family of the then Prime Minister Sheikh Mujubur Rehman means there are elements in Bangladesh today who want to physically annihilate Sheikh Hasina so as to totally wipe out the Mujeeb’s family legacy. On August 24, 2004 when BNP was in power, Sheikh Hasina had narrowly escaped a grenade attack which killed more than 30 AL supporters and leaders. For the 75 years’ old Sheikh Hasina, it is clear that the opposition parties, led by BNP, will not give her another chance, and their demand for early elections under a neutral caretaker government will gain momentum if the economic crisis — which surged because of the war in Ukraine — escalates further, widening the gap between the rich and the poor.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is in dire straits because of three main reasons.
First, she is carrying a baggage of toeing New Delhi’s line and her nexus with PM Narendra Modi is a source of shame in Bangladesh. There is lot of resentment in Bangladesh over the manner in which BJP government has targeted religious minorities, particularly Muslims. The promulgation of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Registration of Citizens has had a direct impact on Bengali Muslims living in Assam. When Indian Home Minister Amit Shah ridiculed Bangladeshis and threatened to expel Bengali Muslims from Assam, the outcome was outrage in Bangladesh. There were widespread protests in Dhaka when Modi planned to visit Bangladesh in December 2021 to mark 50 years of the country’s birth. Yet, Indian influence through RAW has permeated deep inside the state and society of Bangladesh. Nexus between AL and India is as old as Bangladesh: New Delhi had helped Mukti Bahini carve Bangladesh out of Pakistan in 1971. When AL and its supporters argue that they owe their independence to India, as also claimed several times by Modi, Dhaka cannot salvage its sovereignty which, its critics argue, has been mortgaged to India.
Second, the demand by BNP and other opposition parties to establish neutral caretaker government before the next elections has some merit in view of the allegations leveled against AL of worst type of rigging and poll fraud in the past elections. The very phenomenon of a caretaker government to hold general elections had emerged in Bangladesh and was adopted by Pakistan. But the Sheikh Hasina regime amended the constitution to do away with the caretaker government condition, and conducted the elections of 1996, 2001 and 2008 under its own supervision. There is a historical basis of AL resorting to strong armed tactics in order to win elections. In the December 1970 general elections during Pakistan days, AL was accused of coercing its opponents which led to its landslide sweep. The same happened when AL came to power in Bangladesh and its supporters and leaders, under Sheikh Hasina, indulged in worst type of intimidation and bullying against its political opponents.
And third, the youths of Bangladesh who form majority of the country’s population see their future in jeopardy if Sheikh Hasina regains power for a fourth time. Growing class asymmetry, corruption, nepotism and authoritarian governance tend to accentuate insecurity among the youth.
Bangladesh’s moment of truth has arrived and its economic progress may be at stake if political schism and violence augment in the days to come.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 18th, 2022.
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