IK’s about-turn

After months of agitation, refusal to participate in the National Assembly, and making a mockery of the electoral system with his seven-seat candidature, former prime minister Imran Khan appears to be quietly moving away from his narrative of a US-backed conspiracy being the reason behind the dismissal of his government through a vote of no-confidence in April this year. The PTI chairman now says, “As far as I’m concerned it is over, it’s behind me.”

Considering the many wrongs that Khan has — without evidence — accused the US of, it is surprising to see him being this ‘forgiving’. However, after the failure of his many attempts to get the PDM coalition government and the establishment to capitulate to his demands, it would be unsurprising if we later learn that this latest U-turn is an attempt to get foreign backing to sack the government. And this U-turn taken during an interview with the British newspaper Financial Times has, by the way, has all the government guns blazing against him. Prime Minister Shehbaz has severally castigated “deceit and treachery inflicting irreparable damage on Pakistan”.

Khan, meanwhile, compared Washington’s historical relationship with Pakistan to that between master and servant before doubling down and calling it a “master-slave relationship” that must be replaced with a “dignified” relationship. Yet, by taking a ‘forgiving’ approach just a few months after being sacked, the former prime minister appears to be capitulating before the Americans — support me, and all is forgiven.

But his track record, even after the recent softening, offers little reason for the US to support him. Washington tolerates undemocratic and authoritarian regimes when they offer something of interest to the US, most often oil and other resources, or geostrategic advantages against their rivals of the day — from the Soviet Union and its allies during the Cold War to China and Russia today.

Barring a massive global power shift, Pakistan, as a close Chinese ally, cannot hope for much more than a transactional relationship with the US as long as it is deeply embedded in the Chinese camp. Meanwhile, although the US remains Pakistan’s single largest export destination, buying a whopping $9 billion worth of Pakistani goods in the year to date, while also being one of our largest raw cotton suppliers, for the US, trade with Pakistan is relatively insignificant, putting Pakistan at a noticeable disadvantage.

So as much as Khan may try using tough talk to convince his supporters that he can negotiate with the US on equal footing, the reality is that, barring a notable regional event or a miraculous rise to developed nation status, Pakistan will almost always be the weaker party in talks with the US. At the same time, diplomacy is built on interpersonal relationships, and at a certain point, no American will want to put up with Khan’s baseless and dangerous attacks.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 16^th, 2022.

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