Ukraine war — geopolitical spillover

Every day when you open the news, the Ukrainian front seems to be more provocative than before. There is more blame-game, more movement of arms, and there are more states coming into its fold.

There is a war of words and propaganda; the western media is teeming with news suggesting that Putin is on the verge of losing the battle and that perhaps the Russian people and especially the ones in power are scheming for his overthrow. And then there is the blame-game; like in late September, Ukraine accused Russia of making a ‘terrorist attack’ on the Nord Stream pipeline, and in return Russia accused Britain of being the culprit behind that attack; they’ve also accused each other of using ‘dirty bombs’ against the other.

On the one side, the Ukrainian sources are claiming that the Russians have already lost over 77,000 men, and thousands of armed vehicles, launching systems and aircrafts; and on the other, Russia seems to be occupying the whole eastern belt right up to Kherson and advancing. Russia is also having reached cities further away with its ballistic and cruise missiles, and Shahed-136 drones purchased from Iran; attacks on energy infrastructure has triggered blackouts in Kyiv, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv; and Putin has threatened to attack US satellites that may have been aiding Ukraine in the war.

Upon all this, Russia has unilaterally annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia via a referendum in September. Ukraine has retaliated by taking back areas in the Kharkiv region and heating up battle in Kherson, where it is using US-built HIMARAS, with 200-pound warhead with a 50 miles range on the Russian forces.

While all this is going on inside Ukraine, much is moving at the geopolitical framework as a spillover from the war. Things began to worsen with Iran when Zelensky first accused it of giving its drones to Russia for the war. Early November, Saudi Arabia raised threat alert of an Iranian attack on its soil. The US CENTCOM immediately launched warplanes toward Iran from their base in the Persian Gulf to show its deterrence. Though Iran denies any such plan of attacking Saudi, it does accuse it and its western friends of abetting the ongoing hijab-protests in Iran.

Closer to the North Pole, in Norway, there was similar commotion when the Norwegian government raised the readiness of its armed forces. This was after NATO conducted an air operation over Nordland county as part of Norwegian-led air defense exercise Arctic Cooperation. In return, Russian Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said, “Oslo is now among the most active supporters of NATO’s involvement in the Arctic… (causing) the final destruction of Russian-Norwegian relations.”

Another part of the world is the Far East, where Taiwan scrambled on its jets and missile systems after allegedly detecting 11 Chinese aircraft and naval vessels near it. Not to forget that China has been conducting full-scale exercises in the region since Pelosi’s uncalled-for visit to Taiwan. But the Chinese were not the only ones preparing for war here. On the other side of the ocean, in Japan, at the Anderson Air Force Base, Guam, the US has deployed an unknown number of A-10 aircraft; in the Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, the US plans to raise the number of aircraft to 240; exercises will be conducted with Taiwan; F-22s and F-35s will be joining.

In addition, Pyongyang just showcased an air drill with 180 of its Soviet-design warplanes; that also in response to the joint US-South Korea air exercises. Dubbed ‘Vigilant Storm’, they are the largest joint air exercises between the militaries of South Korea and the US in five years. North Korea is also in a habit of swirling short-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan, every now and then, just as signal of its being war-ready.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict began eight years ago when the Euromaidan, allegedly backed by the West, overthrew the pro-Russian Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, resulting in Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Donbas War. When Zelensky came into power in 2019, he signaled his intent to take Ukraine into both EU and NATO. At this Putin threatened and later invaded eastern Ukraine.

The war has affected the geopolitical scenario in other ways too. Remember, in 2019, US and European allies all rounded up against Maduro of Venezuela, shunning him as a dictator and fraud, and recognising Juan Guaidó as interim president in exile — France was one of them. Now that Russia has blocked its gas supply to Europe, and Qatar has bluntly refused Germany, France, Belgium and Italy’s requests for gas supply, we have seen Macron being all clubby with Maduro at the sidewalks of COP22 climate-meet, in a bid to maybe get some gas from him.

So, as the geo-economic world is sliding to the verge of a global economic recession, the global powers look all jittery and volatile, reacting at every reaction, potentially triggering a domino that might be a prelude to a worldwide war. Already, the whole eastern European belt feels like being part of the war-zone, each one from Moldova to Poland are involved. And wheat and sunflower importers around the world are feeling shortages.

Zelensky and Putin are both up for negotiations, but both are trapped in difficult circumstances, especially Zelensky, who has publicly refused to talk to Putin, and has said that he will only talk to a new Russian leader, and rumour is that Biden had asked him to do so.

What Zelensky and other European leaders should think is that the US can afford to ignite wars far from its soil, but can Europe afford to set its own neighborhood on fire?

Perhaps, if Europe would retreat from its bid to enter Ukraine in the EU and NATO, it could bring Russia back to status quo ante. But sadly, the EU wants both, to keep the war and have its gas — which will prove to be an impossible venture. And its best buddy, the US, after wreaking havoc in the Muslim world all the way from Afghanistan to Libya, is now only more-ready for more, multi-front battles.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 11^th, 2022.

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