“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis. For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, we have a direct threat to the use of nuclear weapon, if in fact things continue down the path they’d been going,” says US President Joseph Biden.
Sixty years since the outbreak of Cuban Missile Crisis when the world was at the brink of a Third World War, the threat of Russian President to use nuclear weapons needs to be taken seriously. Is the world getting closer to Armageddon? President Biden made it clear that “the prospect of defeat could make Putin desperate enough to use nuclear weapons”. Back to back events reflect how dangerous the world is becoming in the aftermath of the Russo-Ukrainian war. First, President Vladimir Putin announced partial mobilisation to reinforce his military’s involvement. Second Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted a request on behalf of his country to join NATO. Third, Russia after holding so-called referendum annexed nearly a fifth of Ukrainian territory which triggered another source of conflict between Moscow and the Western backers of Kyiv.
If the world is getting closer to Armageddon, no serious effort is being made to salvage the fragile world order which for the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis tends to augment the vulnerability of international security. The Sino-Russian nexus for the transformation of the world from the West-dominated world order to a multi-polar world with level-playing field to other ambitious powers is a reality but unlike Russia which is condemned for its aggression against Ukraine, China since 1979 has a policy of non-interference vis-à-vis its neighbours.
According to a lead article ‘The alternative world order’ in The Economist (London) issue March 19, 2022: “Both China’s president, Xi Jinping, and Mr. Putin want to carve up the world into spheres of influence dominated by a few big countries. China would run East Asia, Russia would have a veto over European security and America would be forced back home. This alternative world order would not feature universal values of human rights, which Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin see as a trick to justify western subversion of their regimes. They appear to reckon that such ideas will soon be relics of a liberal system that is racist and unstable, replaced by hierarchies in which each country knows its place within the overall balance of power.”
Replacing the US-led world order with a hegemonic system of Russia and China will however be counterproductive. While no power can sustain its tutelage over the world forever, the West has an edge in science and technology, economy, security and geo-strategic compulsions. China is however not totally supportive to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine which was reflected in the 22nd SCO summit held in September this year. The Economist’s article quoted above further states that “China’s approach to the Russo-Ukraine war is borne out of Mr. Xi’s conviction that the great contest in the 20th century will be between China and America, one he likes to suggest that China is destined to win.” But, reports indicate that the Chinese president is in dire straits because of internal challenges to his rule; and if he survives from prevailing threats from foes in the hierarchy of the Communist Party of China, there is a hope for an alternative world order.
One can draw an analogy in prevailing schism in world order to events which triggered the outbreak of World War-I, 1914-18. When the clash between the triple alliance composed of Germany, Austrian-Hungarian Empire and Ottoman Expire on the one hand and the triple entente comprising Britain, France and Russia on the other was irreparable, the outcome was the outbreak of World War-I. Like Russia and China along with other non-Western powers that challenge the US-led world order, the triple alliance was antagonistic to the triple entente as the former was not allowed to play a leading role in world affairs. Will the current polarisation between the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other trigger Armageddon needs to be analysed from three angles.
First, it is the provocation of the US and its NATO allies which is responsible for compelling Russia to take an extreme step of first annexing Crimea in 2014 and then attacking Ukraine in February 2022. Russian threat perception appeared legitimate as it feared its encirclement by NATO. When the Russian elite led by President Vladimir Putin resolved that the West has crossed the red line by blatantly supporting the Ukrainian regime of President Volodymyr Zelensky, it decided to attack Ukraine and eliminate the threat to its backyard once and for all. Miscalculation on the part of Putin proved counterproductive because of the resistance by Ukrainian forces and the countless dead bodies of Russian soldiers. Russia tried to create energy and food crisis by curtailing the supply of gas and blocking the export of wheat from Ukraine. More than that, the world order’s fragility was reflected when NATO decided to massively arm the beleaguered government at Kyiv which helped in tilting the balance in favour of Ukraine.
Second, Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons in case it loses war in Ukraine is a wake-up call for the so-called custodians of the world order. Crossing the red line would mean the outbreak of a Third World War and total destruction of this world. Constant Russian pounding of missile in Kyiv and other cities of Ukraine is not only escalating the war but also taking the world closer to Armageddon. Unfortunately, neither the UN nor the International Court of Justice is playing any role to prevent an impending collision between NATO and Russia. The world disorder is a reality and only Beijing, which has a clout on Russia, should convince Putin to reverse Russia’s measures taken against Ukraine since February this year. In the prevailing circumstances, the war in Ukraine is the centre of gravity in the world order because at stake is the ego and credibility of the Russian President and the ongoing success of resistance against the occupation of Russian forces. The more Putin is defensive in coping with Ukrainian resistance the more he will be tempted to pursue a hard line approach.
Finally, it is highly disappointing that when the world is facing a grave threat in the form of climate change and global warming along with food and energy crises, the issue which gets consideration by the wielders of the world order is the war in Ukraine and the threat of Armageddon. When the world will cease to exist because of the melting of Arctic and Antarctic and rise in sea level will submerge vast areas, the war in Ukraine will not matter.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 16th, 2022.
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