Software update by the people of Punjab

I n the last 20 days, we have witnessed a revolution in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Both revolutions were against status quo forces and equally dramatic, but the key difference is that the Pakistani revolution happened through the ballot box, and this is no mean feat. Smashing all expectations and mainstream media punditry, PML-N got a shellacking and PTI secured a thumping majority in the bye-elections. More importantly, the turnout was nearly double — 40% compared to a typical bye-election 20-25% — which means the people of Pakistan came out and voted to be heard.

The question is, what were they trying to say? PML-N supporters argue that inflation and tough IMF conditions, along with fielding lotas as candidates, were the key reasons they lost the elections. Although this can explain why a PML-N voter would choose to remain home, it does not explain why PTI voters and independents would come out in droves to vote for PTI. At best, PTI’s governance was good in certain areas including Covid-19, the Ehsaas programme, or an independent foreign policy but it wasn’t enough of an unqualified success to secure such a thumping victory.

There’s something else at play and most observers are attributing it to Imran Khan’s narrative. The question is, which narrative? Imran Khan, a master storyteller, was spinning multiple narratives at the same time. There was a narrative about US conspiracy and another one about the neutrals. Here’s where the story gets interesting. Whereas the shaky US conspiracy narrative consumed mainstream media, pundits, and the opposition, there was only one narrative that was dominating: neutrality and neutrals.

For those who still cannot come to terms with the fact that Imran Khan is now the brightest hope to establish civilian supremacy in Pakistan, consider the pattern of actions that started while he was in power. Rejecting notifications, taking interviews, and dictating timelines — Imran Khan asserted civilian supremacy for the second holiest appointment in the land of the pure last year. And before Imran Khan said not to America, he said not to Saudi Arabia.

First on sending Pakistani troops to Yemen, then on turning down the heat on OIC for Kashmir, and then again on recognising Israel. Khan’s decisions were unpopular, but he stood his ground wherever he wanted to, including on Usman Buzdar. Meanwhile, the pure blood democrats kept calling him selected and their supporters said they’d rather have a competent PDM government, even if it was corrupt. For 50 years, Pakistani democracy has been monopolised by two families.

Any challenges were demonised as always being anti-democracy. Now, post the Punjab bye-elections, Imran Khan has established that we can have a third force that can be against all status quo forces and lay a fair claim to the democratic mandate. PML-N’s latest performance shows that their ‘competence’ narrative is more spin than reality. Many myths have been shattered by these Punjab bye-elections. Primary among them is the idea that Khan was selected and did not enjoy a popular mandate.

The false dichotomy of boys versus pure blood democrats has meant that no one could break their combined monopoly on power. The truth is that both ruled the roost while making the other the bogeyman. On Friday, the circus in the Punjab Assembly showed that all forces have been combined forces to eliminate PTI as a third alternative. If this is what PML-N calls a victory and PPP considers ‘aik Zardari sab pai bhari,’ then this is the beginning of the end of their politics.

The people of Pakistan will vote and surprise status quo forces again in the next election. It appears that PDM is playing Ludo, while Imran Khan is busy playing chess.