The (s)electorate

Pakistan’s fiscal predicaments will remain the bane for this or any other government, impossible to resolve

The numbers that Imran Khan gathers at his public meetings are impressive and reflect his deep endearment with sections of the population. It is equally true that other than some seeding effort by the party-men many, if not most, come of their own accord to attend these meetings. There are numerous dynamics at play but social structures and behaviours remain the most influential. It doesn’t mean there aren’t any diehard supporters of his around — most travel large distances to be present, and that’s a problem — just that there is so much more at play here. One could perhaps say the same for PML-N public meetings. These numbers are the visual face of the politics that Imran Khan is engaged in — creating and conveying pressure through a public display of widespread support to the decision-making circles, first of his strength as a political leader, and second to force responses more in line to his way of moving forward; early elections and all.

Dig deeper and not all is hunky-dory. How many of these do actually translate into votes is what measures a political party’s acumen. It needs grassroots organisation and engagement which will mobilise people on the election day. For parties whose politics is based around a single marketable commodity than a substantive presence in the minds of the people, the equation turns low yield. Also, those assigned local leadership must be acceptable to their constituents and worthy of their attention. Even Bhutto could only win one election merely on the strength of his persona. The next time he needed to be assured of his victory with manipulative adjustments. This will be the second time that IK will be vying for power and he doesn’t have anything sterling in his record to fall back on if the voters were a wee bit discerning. The pressure through gatherings thus is to force people, perceptions and powers to succumb to his exclusivity and not scrutinise his performance.

PML-N’s elevation to power even if at the head of a weak and susceptible coalition still is an elevation and if the PML-N can somehow navigate through the maze of complexity in governance without losing much political capital it will, one, be an achievement, and two, it will still retain PML-N’s eminence as the viable alternative to IK’s listless governance. Similarly, Hamza Shehbaz may not have a cabinet in all these days but he has announced to his supporters in Punjab and others who exercise the levers of power that he has indeed arrived. The familial and electable(s)-based political culture of Punjab will surely notice. Given that an almost decaying sense of popular support in IK’s last few days in power now stands resurrected and reenergised this eminence of PML-N at the Centre and in Punjab will hold them in fair stead.

Get into the numbers and it makes for an even more interesting reading. With 148 National Assembly seats Punjab retains its singularity in helping the winner find the mantle for power at the Center. In the 2018 elections the PTI and the PML-N won even-stevens in Punjab while together both secured two-thirds of the 272 directly-elected seats in the NA. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa helped PTI race ahead with an exceptional performance. Next elections will accrue similar results in K-P given a resurgent IK despite a dismal showing at the local bodies. Such has been his rebirth. This will augment PTI’s position in the national polls.

Of the 295 contested general seats in the Punjab provincial assembly, the two parties — PTI and PML-N — shared between them over 85 per cent of the representation and performed equally well. The spurs that got added to PTI, allegedly, in the 2018 elections are now being compensated by party’s resurgence after its tainted removal from power restoring it to an even keel with the PML-N. This should be a moment of concern for the PML-N which may have hoped for an exclusive domination of the province after IK’s unremarkable stint. An untimely no-confidence move has upset PML-N’s apple cart.

Yet, many who broke away from PML-N and some from the PPP who joined a PTI with wind in its sails — and a large number that fought elections as Independents to retain their option of joining the winner — are all set to return to their older folds. These are mostly ‘electable(s)’ from prominent political families who may be impacted by a flurry of decisions by the Supreme Court on clauses of defection. Even if ineligible to contest the next elections (unlikely) they will have replacements within their brood to retain their seats and their political weight. PML-N may turn a net gainer.

Back to the numbers. Punjab has patent urban constituencies and then absolutely rural ones which can be determined easily. But most of Punjab is semi-urban or semi-rural. Yet they all retain a universal Punjabi way of thinking: very much familial, tribal, broody, and conservative. One or two of a family will break ranks under the momentum IK has generated among the ‘youth’. So in a poll expect two members of the family to vote otherwise while the other three or four stick to the convention. It may not help the PTI much in a first-past-the-post electoral system in the semi-urban towns of Punjab, which is most of Punjab. Faisalabad might flip back to the PML-N because of the electable(s). Sargodha, Multan, etc will at best return fifty-fifty. Most electable(s) in the rural area though will likely return to the fold of the PML-N and give it the majority from Punjab that can kindle its hopes. But sadly that is where it just might end.

Extrapolating numbers is dangerous and difficult, but say the seat count is 70-55 in PML-N’s favour in Punjab for the NA. PTI can bolster that with another 30 odd, say 35, in K-P. That will make it around 90. It is unlikely to retain its seat count in Sindh this time with MQM again finding its feet and accommodation with the PPP. Say they can hold onto 5-7 seats in Sindh and one is looking at only a 100-seat PTI in the next elections. PML-N will still be a close second given the dynamics of how weakly and poorly they are placed in other provinces. Rising from the ashes a 100-seat PTI at the Center will still be a formidable force. Whether the Qs and the Ps will be enough to give it the electoral strength to form a government is moot and unlikely. It shall need one big partner to form a government. Will that change PTI’s and IK’s attitude towards others is a question of political sagacity.

Similarly, the PML-N will need its partners in the PDM and the PPP to form a government. It shall be a repeat of what is now. Given the constraint early elections seem unlikely; PPP doesn’t want them. Without a major partner PTI or the PML-N will be resigned to the opposition benches. Most importantly neither has the solution to Pakistan’s economic and fiscal predicaments. These will remain the bane for this or any other government, impossible to resolve. Other than easing political turmoil there is precious little any election may deliver. Rather, more of the same.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 20^th, 2022.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.