Race against time : Dengue onslaught predicted for Pindi

Experts say outbreak likely during monsoon and early autumn which will burden hospitals

RAWALPINDI:

A large number of larvae being found in Rawalpindi district has rung alarm bells that an onslaught of dengue may be on the horizon; as authorities scramble to eliminate it, the threat of rainfall will only make matters worse.

Larvae found in large numbers from 3,000 homes and 400 outdoor spots in Rawalpindi during the anti-dengue campaign are three times higher than last year and authorities have voiced their concerns that a dangerous dengue outbreak from July to October this year seems like a realistic possibility.

Sources privy to the matter say that dengue outbreaks usually happen after 3 year intervals, Rawalpindi’s last onslaught of the mosquito-borne viral disease was in 2019 and if timely fumigation was not done this time around a repeat of 2019 would be seen.

This is troublesome because 2019 saw 11,995 dengue patients being admitted in hospitals of Rawalpindi out of which 78 died, as per Dr Sajjad Sarwar, who is the Health Department’s Focal Person for Dengue. “In contrast, in 2020, only 34 patients were admitted to the hospitals and no patient died of dengue. However, in 2021, the number of dengue patients in hospitals rose to 4,700 and 26 patients died,” Dr Sajjad informed, indicating that an upsurge this year was likely.

Etiologist Nasir Mahmood, who is working as an expert in the search for larvae in the anti-dengue campaign, while talking to The express tribune said that the best time to respond to dengue larvae was within seven days of its discovery.

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“Following the seven-day incubation period, the larvae turn into adult mosquitoes which are very difficult to control. Furthermore, if there is heavy rainfall, then the breeding of dengue larvae outdoors will be difficult to control.”

Nasir said that presently it was a race against time as whether or not a dengue epidemic will sprout this year depends on the rainfall. “If the outdoor response against dengue larvae increases from seven days to twenty days, then dengue larvae cannot be prevented from becoming adult mosquitoes and the situation will become uncontrollable,” the etiologist informed.

Experts have also cautioned that citizens should not allow dengue larvae to breed in their homes and take all precautionary measures. Dr Sajjad, when asked what measures the department was taking to help citizens combat indoor and outdoor larvae, said that fogging is done outdoors while an IRS spray is done inside the house to prevent mosquitos developing. “So far 3,199 dengue larvae sites have been cleared, while 115 are pending.

The anti-dengue campaign is being carried out in a systematic manner. Our daily campaign strategy is formulated in the light of the report compiled after each fogging session.” However, Dr Sajjad like the other experts stated that the dengue season can start from July and can peak in August. “We are expecting dengue related hospitalizations to increase in October of this year,” Dr Sajjad sounded the alarm while talking to The express tribune.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, May 9^th, 2022.