As the opposition trains its guns on Prime Minister Imran Khan ahead of the no-confidence vote, the political earth of the country shook and seemed to tack toward the opposition after the ruling party apparently lost its majority in the National Assembly following a pull-out of its key allies.
The situation has come about in the wake of the MQM-P’s seven members crossing over to the opposition’s side after burning the midnight oil with the joint opposition and hammering out an agreement in the wee hours of Wednesday.
لائیو: ایم کیو ایم پاکستان کے رہنماؤں کی متحدہ اپوزیشن کے ہمراہ اسلام آباد میں مشترکہ پریس کانفرنس
— PPP (@MediaCellPPP) March 30, 2022
https://t.co/nxlv59g6Cr
The development seems to have altered all previous careful calculations. Until Tuesday, the ruling coalition had a strength of 171 members and was trumpeting about having a leg up on the joint opposition. But some political observers now anticipate that the MQM-P’s withdrawal has delivered a potentially fatal blow to the PTI government, leading to a situation where thick smog of uncertainty is finally yielding to clear answers about the possible outcome.
However, amid the mercurial political climate, the question that whether or not the PTI has actually lost the majority can only be answered on the day of the vote.
Calls for resignation
As the numbers in PM Khan's favour evaporated in the National Assembly, volley after volley of statements from the emboldened opposition leaders asked the beleaguered prime minister to tender his resignation.
Addressing an important press conference in Islamabad, flanked by leaders of the joint opposition, to unveil the details of the agreements signed between the opposition and MQM-P, PML-N leader Shehbaz Sharif urged the prime minister to resign and start a new chapter in the political history of Pakistan.
“I don’t think he will resign but it’s a hope against hope,” Shehbaz Sharif said.
The meeting, chaired by Shehbaz Sharif, was also attended by 22 members of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf while 175 members of opposition parties were also present in the meeting held at the Sindh House.
Shehbaz Sharif, who is also the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly extolled the agreement as a monumental step forward for the nation, saying it was an important day in the country’s history “because a joint opposition ... a national jirga of the opposition ... has come together and efforts have been made for national unity”.
"I want to thank MQM-P and its workers who kept the wishes of the 220 million people of Pakistan [at heart] and made this decision. I am especially thankful to Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal that through this whole process of negotiations, they kept history aside. They have initiated this journey of Pakistan's prosperity and Karachi's happiness."
Addressing the presser, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari also asserted that PM Imran "has now lost majority" in the National Assembly, adding that Shehbaz will soon occupy the prime minister’s office.
The Bhutto scion said that PM Khan was no longer the premier of the country and added that the voting should be held on Thursday. “Let's hold the voting tomorrow and settle this matter. We can then start working on transparent elections and the journey towards restoration of democracy and an end to economic crisis can then begin,” the PPP chairman said.
چیئرمین پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی بلاول بھٹو زرداری کی متحدہ اپوزیشن کے وفد کے ہمراہ ایم کیو ایم پاکستان کے اراکین سے ملاقات کے بعد مشترکہ پریس کانفرنس@BBhuttoZardari pic.twitter.com/s6GTeIupVT
— PPP (@MediaCellPPP) March 30, 2022
Meanwhile, JUI-F and PDM chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, addressing the joint presser of opposition, said the embattled prime minister still had time at his disposal to "do the right thing".
"The drama that started over three years ago has met its end today," he added.
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Vice President Maryam Nawaz also echoed the fellow leaders and said that PM Imran's reign of "incompetence and utter destruction" stood defeated both inside and outside parliament.
"You have not only lost the majority but moral authority. STEP DOWN," she wrote on her Twitter handle.
Read Imran directs MNAs to stay away from no-trust session
متحدہ اپوزیشن کے وفد کی ایم کیو ایم پاکستان کے اراکین سے ملاقات، ایم کیو ایم پاکستان نے بھی عدم اعتماد کے حق میں اپنا فیصلہ سنا دیا۔@BBhuttoZardari pic.twitter.com/LYKNDxrG6h
— PPP (@MediaCellPPP) March 30, 2022
Read more: MQM-P's Aminul Haque, Farogh Naseem resign as federal ministers
The number game
The PTI is now left with 164 members in its favour, while 177 members are expected to vote against PM Imran Khan – more numbers than required to pull off the premier's ouster through the vote. Meanwhile, the lone Jamaat lawmaker will stay neutral in the no-confidence vote.
The ruling PTI has 155 members of its own which, counted along with the four members of PML-Q, three of GAD and one each of AML and BAP, translates into 164 members (and votes in favour).
Also read: Opposition, MQM-P reach agreement on no-trust move
Under the Constitution, a prime minister is elected by a majority of the lower house National Assembly, which has 342 members. A candidate needs a majority of legislators, 172, to vote for him to become prime minister.
On the other hand, a number of the ruling party’s allies and members have been siding with the opposition, strengthening its numbers.
In the event of the opposition winning the no-confidence vote, Prime Minister Imran Khan will become the first head of the government in the country's history to be sent home through the no-trust vote.
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