The dis-trust equation

As political canvassing gathers an upbeat in the wake of no-trust motion tabled by the opposition, a spokesperson from the government has come up with a timeline hinting at the vote to be secured after March 27. This may be a relieving piece of information in a volatile environment, but what has upped the ante is the decision on the part of the ruling party to stage a show of strength in the federal capital a day before the motion is put to vote. This is an unwarranted move in a fragile political order and might compound the situation. The opposition and the treasury are poised with a challenge, and the foremost is to adhere to serenity and avoid instability.

At the same time fortifications are evident, as governmental allies are exhibiting their frequent change of heart. This is openly being canvassed on the media and a guessing game is on. Though none of the government allies have defected to this day, the aura is reflective of dejection and second thoughts. The ruling party although seems confident to sail successfully, profanity from some quarters, especially the PM’s diatribe, and outright castigation of many others has bred uncertainty. Some MNAs in governmental ranks are out to make a better deal, and that is there to be seen in Aleem and Tareen camps. This aspect is paving polarisation, and is perhaps the most undesired element in an era when economy is down and social mobility is not picking momentum.

The decisive card of defection clause that the government intends to play to discourage floor-crossing seems to be waning in thin air. The Speaker, under precedents and byelaws, cannot obstruct or negate voting right to a member — on either side of partisan—but can only refer it to the Election Commission for action. By then it would be too late, and the motion might have been carried. Apparently, this is why the veiled hard words from Federal Minister for Information Fawad Hussain Chaudhry came, wherein he said dissidents would have to cross the sea of people before making it to the parliament. This is the most unnerving aspect which has sent shivers down the spine, escalating moves to take street power by both the sides.

If politics behind the curtain is any criterion, there is a lot of water to flow down the river before the no-confidence motion is put to vote. The upcoming OIC Foreign Ministers’ meeting, the high-profile visits of the Saudi Crown Prince and the Chinese foreign minister, as well as the decisive role that the invisible forces have to play in formulating an opinion are too tough to be interpreted beforehand. But one thing is certain: the country is rapidly plunging into instability and the tangibles of business and governance are on the backburner. This aspect coincides with the call for withdrawing the no-trust resolution paving the way for renewed political interactions across the divides.

There is a lot that the political forces need to settle on before going into next elections, such as electoral reforms, census and last but not least a new charter of political coexistence. Time to spare a thought on institutional affairs by taking a break from jingoism.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 16^th, 2022.

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