An unassured no-trust

The grand opposition alliance has once again staked its claim. The Pakistan Democratic Movement somehow seems to be in a mood to table a no-confidence motion against the government, and it has made great strides in it by winning over the critical support of the PPP. The PML-N for long has been obsessed with the idea of showing the door to the PTI government, by hook or by crook, but the PPP of Asif Zardari had dragged its feet on various premises. Nonetheless, if one goes with the verbatim of Maulana Fazalur Rehman, the PDM President, there are many inherent goofs and he himself wasn’t too confident in his Machiavellian moves.

What has raised eyebrows is the dependence of the PDM on the largesse of government allies to make a no-confidence move a success, and it is almost like putting the cart before the horse. It also means that the numerical opposition strength is short of the required magic figure to send the government packing. Thus, either it is floor-crossing or a political coup of sorts that could garland the opposition with success. It is an untenable proposition in our chequered politics, keeping in view the fact that general elections are right around in a year, and the establishment is in no mood to up the ante by indulging in somersaults.

The question is: what makes the PDM undertake an exercise in such a haste? The opposition had been weighing whether to take to the streets in March against the inflationary trend. Moreover, it may be recalled that none of the collective moves by the opposition in the National Assembly were a success, as the treasury — despite having a wafer-thin majority in the lower house — time and again managed to bulldoze not only legislations, including the mini-budget, but also major amendments to the Constitution. And finally the flak that the opposition got in the Senate recently, leading to the voluntary resignation of Yousuf Raza Gillani as leader of the house, is a significant case in point.

Then what is the guarantee that the combined opposition, which has a divisive agenda when it comes to self-interests, will sail across smoothly — and create history by showing the door to a Prime Minister for the first time on the floor of the house? It is incomprehensive, to say the least, and the body language of the JUI-F chief hints at it all the way! This is why the ministerial battery termed the PDM’s tall claims a hoax, and a tactic to pull strings behind the curtain. Whether that pertains to pending cases in the courts or looming indictments is anybody’s guess.

The opposition has to watch its steps. It is going back on its own dictum that no government should be thrown out before it completes its tenure. Mr Zardari, for reasons yet to be ascertained, has played roulette by giving a green signal for a no-confidence motion. The PML-N, despite euphoria, is far from an assured outcome. Its Central Executive Committee is keeping fingers crossed. With PTI allies once again reiterating their confidence in the PM, as is evident from PML-Q’s comeback, the opposition’s momentum is on icy sheets. Taking to the floor of the house could be a Waterloo for it.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 13^th, 2022.

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