Independents turn local elections party-less

The proverbial saying ‘the devil lies in details’ fits very well on the recently held local bodies’ elections in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. It was perhaps the first time that local elections at every tier were held on a party basis thanks to the Supreme Court of Pakistan. What scholars have been arguing for some time has been proven right — political parties don’t exist at the grassroots level. And perhaps this has been a major factor that had deterred political parties from holding party-based local elections. In one of my earlier articles, I had argued that the political elite would prefer to face humiliation rather than organise party chapters because membership-based organisations have an inherent tendency to become democratic and free, which is not acceptable even to the local influentials. Any attempts, if there were any, have been frustrated by traditional power brokers.

With much delay, the election authorities have finally released the results of the local elections of all categories of local seats including of the Neighborhood and Village Councils (NVC). An analysis of the results reveals interesting sociopolitical trends at the lowest tier of the local election.

First, the share of independent candidates is highest in both the contesting and returned candidates. For instance, in Bannu, Karak, Hangu, Khyber and Bajaur, the share of independents among the contesting candidates was between 72% and 80%, while in Peshawar it was almost 50%. Even in Nowshera, out of 893 total candidates, only 179 belonged to parties while 713 (80%) were independent. Unlike in the general elections in which a large majority of independents lose, the local government elections in K-P saw a large majority of them win. In Hangu and Khyber, 74% and 59% independents respectively defeated the candidates of the so-called big parties. This is indeed an unprecedented political phenomenon. The ECP forms show that PTI did not field candidates in most of the 17 districts. This is most probably because of the ruling party’s decision to let its members contest as independents. Whether this was caused by fear of defeat or too many party members wanted to contest from the same seats would require further investigation. However, from discussions I’ve had with some well-informed people, it appears that both factors have influenced the party’s strategy.

Second, though so-called liberal and secular parties fielded a good number of candidates for the village and neighbourhood council in major urban centres, they have little presence in rural and far-flung districts. On the other hand, religious parties seem to have widespread presence in both rural and urban areas across all the 17 districts of K-P. Also, numerical strength of their candidates was far larger than the liberal parties’ combined strength. In Bajaur, two religious parties won 272 seats while three liberal parties (ANP, PPP and PML-N) got just 87. In Bannu too, the three major liberal parties fielded only 19 candidates, while the two religious parties fielded 143.

Will the above stated trends persist in the second phase of the local elections as well? I would say yes, but with a little variation. Most likely, the share of independent candidates will remain high and they may capture most of the seats. There will be a few upsets for the PTI and many for the PPP and the PML-N. Religious parties may perform better than in 2015 but not as good as they have done in the first phase.

Having said that, political scientists, intelligentsia, and civil society actors must focus their attention towards understanding the potential implications of independents on local polity and local governance — what options they have and how political elites are going to manipulate them for their own self interests?

For the sake of this article, I am restricting myself to a few suggestions. As the numerical strength of independents is larger than all political parties combined in most districts, independents can form their own party instead of joining the existing parties. Since they have the popular voter base, they have legitimacy, and thus they can sow the seeds of local democratic governance. For instance, a charter of good and inclusive governance could be developed and adopted by them and shared with the wider civil society and intelligentsia for adoption, implementation and support.

Those who intend to join existing parties must appreciate their own strength. For instance, they must understand that political parties need them more than vice versa. Therefore, they should negotiate collectively, not individually, with the political leadership for the democratisation of parties and inclusive governance. Since local councils have representatives of various marginalised classes and genders, they could really pave the ground for inclusive governance and polity.

It sounds naïve. Initially, every utopia does. For instance, the abolition of slavery remained a utopia for centuries. Consider Spartacus’s uprising against Roman tyranny. Consider the anti-slavery movement of the 19^th century. Consider the suffragette movement of the early 20^th century. And don’t forget the anti-colonial and anti-imperial wars of liberation. Ideas emerge from material conditions which help build movements. Industrialisation not only liberated serfs from the tyranny of feudal lords but also opened avenues to organise against the exploitation of capitalist employers. The organised labour movement ultimately pushed the Western states to introduce a welfare system and rights-based governance, which deepened democracy.

If independent candidates win in large numbers in the second phase of local elections, they will create sufficient sociopolitical capital to push for meaningful reforms. However, to make this a reality, the process of conscientisation must be initiated. Though I am associated with a civil society organisation, I am convinced that funded NGOs can’t play that role. They can only act as catalysts.

I read the columns of my fellow writers with keen interest. It often makes me sad that while most of them articulate convincingly in their own unique style, they generally write about poor governance; criticise the corrupt elites; and blame the same factors, structures and processes. Strangely they seem to be reluctant to act collectively and appear shy of working with marginalised populations. Ingredients of success are available in the form of independents who have overwhelmed the traditional parties. If they can defeat the so-called large parties, they could also bring about much-needed change. Assist them.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 29^th, 2022.

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