Entering 2022

With the ordeal of 2021 drawing to an end, many people are wondering whether the new year will bring better tidings or more of the same. While optimists will say that this will be Pakistan’s year as they have incorrectly said every year for several decades, and pessimists will continue painting the bleakest of pictures; the truth, as always, will be somewhere in the middle.

The Pakistani people, both leaders and citizens, have time and again shown that we are more than capable of making good things go bad in the blink of an eye. At the same time, we have proven ourselves to be far more resilient than most.

Just look at how we handled the economic upheaval of the past few years. With Covid-19 still a global problem, we can expect it to also continue undermining economic gains in the coming year. And even if the pandemic is not a significant factor, economic realities have not kept pace with predictions for a while now. We have no reason to believe that this year will be any different. However, with that said, if we can even get within touching distance of the government’s goals, it will be worth something, and a relief to millions hit by the current wave of inflation.

We must also recall that we are barely 18 months from the next scheduled elections. Barring some political wizardry from the opposition, the PTI government and the provincial setups look set to complete their terms, meaning we can expect them to gear into election mode sometime in 2022. While the opposition is licking its lips at the openings presented by the PTI economy and other missteps taken by the incumbents, the ruling party remains quite popular, and the opposition divided, with cracks being spoken of in both major opposition parties.

While some would find it far-fetched, especially after the local elections debacle in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, a bit of good governance from here to the election could help Imran Khan become the first prime minister to complete his five-year term, and perhaps even lead the PTI to become the first party to win back-to-back elections.

But good governance is not just about the economy. We still have international issues to deal with, chiefly the situation in Afghanistan. Without international aid, the war-ravaged country will descend into one of the worst famines in history, and the spillover effects will wreak havoc in Pakistan. Meanwhile, on the eastern border, India continues its efforts to destablise Pakistan in general and Kashmir in particular.

The internal security situation is also precarious, with the TTP looking stronger than it has for several years. Religio-political violence also remains a threat, with the TLP still a significant force, and the brutal Sialkot incident still fresh in our minds.

As we noted earlier, Pakistanis are resilient people. Even if the challenges we mentioned keep rearing their heads, we will survive. But it would be nice if success, rather than survival, is the one-word summary of the country’s performance in 2022.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 1^st, 2022.

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