Pakistan’s multiple security challenges

The military and intelligence chiefs’ in-camera briefing to the Parliamentary Committee on National Security augurs well for the civil-military relations and for strengthening national security. This session was essential considering that Pakistan faces multiple external and internal challenges that need a united national response. For developing a coherent policy there has to be clarity on the nature and extent of the threat. The political party’s patiently and attentively listened and participated in the security briefing for nearly nine hours, whereas in parliament there is so much of rowdyism that seldom national issues get the attention they deserve. Let this be a turning point for addressing national issues seriously in parliament and Senate.

With the drawdown of US forces more or less complete, Afghanistan faces the spectre of another major escalation of the civil war. As the dominance of the Taliban is unacceptable to a significant cross-section of the Afghan population including powerful segments of the Afghan society, the spillover of the internal conflict would result in an influx of thousands of refugees trying to enter Pakistan and other bordering states. This has serious consequences for our economy and political stability. Anticipating this our army has fenced the Western border — a remarkable feat considering the terrain and security challenges, and strengthened its border force. Still the danger remains. Moreover, in Afghanistan there is no political party with a wide support base that can truly claim to be a national party. This is one factor that gives the Taliban leadership the opportunity to exploit the vacuum by using their military muscle and impose their writ. After the departure of the US forces the Afghan forces seem unable to counter the Taliban advance. And the future is dour. Perhaps the Afghan government never seriously prepared itself for departure of foreign forces and for the first time the Afghan armed forces will be left to themselves.

The Afghan army was neither trained or equipped to fight an insurgency. With more than 25% of Afghanistan in Taliban control and major provincial capitals surrounded by Taliban forces the situation is grim. The morale of the Afghan forces is low, their command structure is broken and, on many fronts, they are surrendering without putting up a fight.

What would or should Pakistan’s response be to this fast-changing Afghan scenario? There is a broad consensus in Pakistan that it will recognise any government in Afghanistan that is acceptable to its people. But determining the people’s will is not going to be easy in a political vacuum and especially when power is being gained through the use of force. Despite all the preparations that Pakistan has taken to prevent the influx of refugees and militants seeking hide outs in Pakistan’s border regions the challenge remains.

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) that had been pushed out of the tribal belt and is languishing close to our borders in southern and eastern Afghanistan is poised to engage in terrorist activities in Pakistan. Reports indicate TTP is being supported by BJP government and elements in Afghanistan that are hostile toward Pakistan and the Taliban are looking the other way. And the Afghan government is complicit or incapable of exercising its writ over its territory in which these groups are freely operating. In this situation, one option for Pakistan would be to strike at their bases in Afghanistan before they become too powerful.

The fate of the Afghan women in case of Taliban takeover is raising serious concerns among human rights organisations. President Ashraf Ghani’s National Unity Government has done more to mainstream women in its governance and policy formulation than any previous government. This has resulted in substantial progress for women and girls in several fields of activity. Women are members of parliament and are ministers, and the danger is that all this may be reversed. Improved female literacy and education, better healthcare, all contribute toward promoting economic growth.

With India, PM Khan has made several attempts to engage with PM Narendra Modi but to no avail. Pakistan has pursued a consistent Kashmir policy based on UNSC resolutions. It wants that the will of the people of Kashmir should prevail in determining the future status of the state. If the US claims to champion human rights then US President Joe Biden needs to address PM Modi on this issue. The BJP government in order to cover up its gross human rights violations in Kashmir and ill treatment of Muslims in general has resorted to serious anti-Pakistan policies. However, for expedient reasons, the US and Western countries are muted about India’s gross HR violations in Kashmir and in India. In sharp contrast, the Chinese treatment of Uyghurs comes under severe criticism. Pakistan and the Muslim countries will continue to face similar discriminatory attitude. This is not to deny our shortcomings or weaknesses especially in the past in the field of human rights and our treatment of minorities. These need to be criticised wherever it occurs for our voice to carry weight.

It has been five months since President Biden has been in office but has not spoken to PM Khan. The silence is intriguing and in all likelihood is an indication that the president is conveying a message to Pakistan. What that message is, is difficult to decipher. Pakistan cannot be blamed for the chaotic conditions in Afghanistan for no country has suffered more than it has from the civil war and resulting instability.

It continues to persuade the Taliban and other political forces to seek a political solution. The US cannot shy away from accepting responsibility of its policy failures in Afghanistan. Although the Taliban have seized control over large parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan has clearly stated that it will not recognise their government unless the people of Afghanistan give them legitimacy. As Pakistan has a greater influence on the Taliban than any other country, it has played an important role in persuading them to engage with other political groups and not imposing themselves through brute force. But still the Taliban are showing no willingness at this stage to engage with the Afghan government.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 7^th, 2021.

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