The ominous return of the Taliban

As the US completes a hastily planned troop withdrawal, months ahead of schedule

In 2001, the US was the sole superpower in the world when it invaded Afghanistan and the Taliban were the globe’s most primitive fighting force. Ironically, two decades later, it’s the Taliban who are on the verge of returning to power, while the US completes a hastily planned troop withdrawal, months ahead of schedule. The US came to Afghanistan to achieve two objectives: to destroy Al Qaeda; and to prevent the resurgence of the Taliban. It is leaving Afghanistan, paving the way for the return of the Taliban and it has also outsourced the destruction of whatever remains of Al Qaeda, to the Taliban. Unfortunately, the unravelling of US policy in Afghanistan is sending shockwaves across the region, as neighbouring countries prepare for an inevitable civil war, which can have disastrous consequences for the region.

Afghanistan’s territory comprises over 400 districts, including the capital cities of the 34 provinces. In January 2018, the Taliban controlled only 14 districts, while the Afghan government held sway over approximately 120 districts and the rest of the territory was contested. Over a year ago in February 2020, when the US signed the peace agreement with the Taliban, the Taliban had won close to 80 districts, while the Afghan government’s position remained unchanged. After the announcement of the withdrawal of all US forces in April, 2021, the Taliban are now in control of almost 150 districts, as the Afghan government retreats, desperately trying to hold on to its 80 districts. Since May 1, 2021, the Taliban have swept through large parts of Afghanistan at an alarming pace (80 out of the 160 districts, taken in less than 60 days) and have captured areas that were not in their control, even at the peak of their power in 1999 — areas to the north of Kabul, traditionally held by the Northern Alliance, dominated by ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks, when they ruled over 90% of Afghanistan.

One of the primary factors behind the success of the Taliban, is the absence of American air power, which almost always bombed the Taliban into retreat. However, after the signing of the peace deal, the US has left the Afghan army to fend for itself, refusing to provide necessary air support. The absence of American air power, along with the Taliban’s deal, has decimated the morale of Afghan forces, as a result some from the Afghan army have chosen to even give their American donated military equipment to the Taliban, instead of fighting. However, it is rumoured that in the recent meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Ashraf Ghani, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has promised to provide private contractors to the Afghan government, after the US withdrawal, to manage and maintain their various air assets, which will be crucial in the fight against the Taliban. In addition, the Biden administration has promised to provide over $3 billion in military aid, which should potentially help the Afghan government to survive for a year.

Various intelligence estimates believe that the Afghan government will fall within three to six months, after the exit of foreign troops. The Taliban are currently capturing districts, surrounding the capital cities and are expected to attack, as soon as US and NATO leave. Since the Afghan government has failed to put up a significant fight in the rural areas, analysts believe they are conserving their resources to fight in the major cities, which could lead to a horrific bloodbath. But under no scenario is the Afghan government expected to reverse the tide of Taliban victories. In fact, their best hope is to fight for a stalemate till the onset of winter, which might force the Taliban to negotiate with the government, instead of seeking an outright victory. There is also the possibility that significant portions of the Afghan army will melt away or join the Taliban, instead of fighting. However, in other areas militias raised from the population who despise the Taliban are likely to put up a fierce fight, with the support of neighbouring countries. For example, in Herat, reports have surfaced of the Iranian special guard training and equipping the local population, to fight the Taliban. It remains to be seen, if similar support will be extended by countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, to populations in the north of Afghanistan, to resist the Taliban.

In view of the above developments, Pakistan is in the worst possible position. If Afghanistan falls prey to a protracted civil conflict, Pakistan will face a massive influx of refugees. At the same time, it will be pressured by the West to force the Taliban to agree to a power sharing agreement with the Afghan government. But if Pakistan takes any step, against the Taliban, then they will respond by taking the fight inside Pakistan. Even if the Taliban are unable to capture 90% of the territory as they did in 1999, they will maintain their strongholds along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and therefore to antagonise the Taliban, at this juncture, would be an extremely unwise decision. Imran Khan’s unequivocal rejection to provide bases to the US, to be used against the Taliban, is a realisation of this stark reality. The best that Pakistan can hope for is a swift victory for the Taliban, which would then open up the possibility of peace. Whether such a victory is possible or not is highly debatable, but the answer is just a few weeks away.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 3^rd, 2021.

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