Strategic shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy

When the PTI government came to power in August 2018, Pakistan had to reach out to its friends in the Gulf seeking a financial bailout package to shore up the country’s depleting foreign exchange reserves. Prime Minister Imran Khan had to travel twice to Saudi Arabia. The hectic diplomatic efforts did pay off when Saudi Arabia and the UAE announced a bailout package. PM Imran went on national television and announced that Pakistan had prevented a major economic crisis thanks to its “friends”. But that was not the full story. Asking for money even from your friends has never been a pleasant experience. And the PM’s adviser on commerce, Abdul Razzak Dawood, who accompanied the PM on those visits, recently revealed how embarrassing it was for the country to ask for help. “I know the pain this government went through right at the start when we had to go to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Abu Dhabi and put our hand out. Where is your national security, where is your influence when you have to ask to be saved? It is pretty embarrassing,” Dawood said in a candid speech at the Islamabad Security Dialogue.

The context of his statement was to highlight the fact that countries which lacked economic security often ended up compromising their sovereignty. The bailout package by these ‘friendly countries’ certainly came at a cost. It was because of these reasons that Pakistan could not sustain Saudi pressure on the Kuala Lumpur Summit. These reality checks and others appear to have compelled the country’s decision-makers to revisit Pakistan’s foreign policy. It is often said that Pakistan’s foreign policy remained security-driven and we have given little emphasis on leveraging our economic potential. But it is impossible to realise our true economic potential without bringing a shift in our policies. For long, there has been a debate in Pakistan regarding whether we should embark on trade and economic ties without first resolving the longstanding Kashmir dispute. At least the PPP and PML-N, in their last stints in power, tried to improve trade and economic ties while simultaneously seeking the resolution of Kashmir. However, because of a lack of consensus, both parties had to face resistance from the concerned quarters.

But at the Islamabad Security Dialogue, the keynote speeches by PM Imran and Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa clearly showed that there now seems to be a greater realisation that without economic prowess Pakistan will not achieve its foreign policy goals. It was because of this shift in approach that both the PM and the Army Chief sounded conciliatory towards India. The Army Chief’s statement was significant where he stated that it was “time to bury the past and move forward”. The PM said that India would have to take the first step to create a conducive environment for the resumption of talks. What is significant is that Pakistan appears to be no more asking the reversal of Article 370 or at least linking it with the resumption of talks. The conducive environment means that India needs to lift restrictions on occupied Kashmir, and release political prisoners, etc.

There is also a change in tone and tenor of Indian officials towards Pakistan. India has its own strategic reasons to change its approach. Over a year-long border standoff with China has made New Delhi realise that the two-front situation is not tenable. Nevertheless, the shift in Pakistan’s approach focusing on the economy is necessitated by harsh realities. We must ask ourselves: are we making peace overtures today from a position of strength, compared to, let’s say, similar passages of the peace process in 1998, 2004 and even at the start of the first term of the Modi government?

Published in The Express Tribune, March 22^nd, 2021.

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