Experts share their take on 2021

The Express Tribune speaks to experts in different sectors to assess outlook of economy

The economy had been under pressure for the past 12 months. While for some sectors 2020 had been a nightmare, for others it was a blessing in disguise.

It had been a year unlike any; while the services sector was battered by the pandemic, new businesses also emerged. Though the agriculture sector suffered due to lockdowns, locust attack and climate change, the construction sector and capital markets managed to finish the year on a positive note.

Now, as we look towards 2021 with a mix of caution and hope, The Express Tribune digs deep to see how the new year will unfold for businesses and economy.

 

Economy and Covid vaccine

A lot of what will happen in 2021 will be determined by how early Pakistan can get hold of an approved Covid-19 vaccine. Economic recovery will depend on how effective the government’s fiscal and economic policy responses are

SDPI Executive Director Abid Qaiyum Suleri

Support from donor agencies

Pakistan has done well to pull through the tough 2020. We are committed to the country’s economic recovery through stabilisation, resilience, growth and job creation

Asian Development Bank Country Director for Pakistan Xiaohong Yang

Conditions for economic development

Pakistan was already facing the aftermath of IMF programme, which was further fuelled by the unexpected pandemic. However, later on – after the suspension of IMF programme – the economy started coming back on track, and if this continues I assume that we will observe 2-2.5% positive growth in 2021

Economist Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan

Low-cost borrowing by businesses

Year 2021 will be better for businesses and the economy. The prevailing (low) interest rate at 7% and available liquidity in the market will keep supporting businesses and economic activities. Statistics from February onwards will show high growth trends

Arif Habib Corporation Founder Arif Habib

Expedite decision-making process

Developments in 2021 will depend on decision-making. Learning from the experiences of 2020 – the losses incurred in the areas of wheat, sugar and LNG due to untimely decisions – I would recommend that to policymakers

Pakistan’s former ambassador to WTO Manzoor Ahmad

Long road ahead for aviation industry

Post-pandemic full revival of air traffic in Pakistan will take about three years, though domestic traffic in some countries like China has almost recovered

Aviation expert Afsar Malik

Not too optimistic conditions for trade

The world economy will remain stressed for at least the first half; there will consequently be demand compression for our exports; the current account will continue to benefit from formalisation of remittances

Pakistan Business Council CEO Ehsan Malik

Construction sector to boom

Bright future lies ahead for the construction sector in Pakistan as the federal government is focused on reviving the sector. We are looking forward to a good year ahead

Member Task Force on Housing Mohammad Hassan Bakshi

Power sector to continue to bleed

The power sector will continue to remain under stress as all variables are bound to remain as they are. Non-professional management, increase in tariff, revenue-based load-shedding for three provinces other than Punjab, further accumulation of circular debt and consumer discontent will be seen

Former PEPCO MD Tahir Basharat Cheema

Better year for telecom

From all the visible signs it appears that 2021 is going to be a better year for telecommunications in Pakistan. I say this because several outstanding demands, for which Pakistan’s telecom sector had been struggling, seem to be getting recognised at the highest levels

ICT expert Parvez Iftikhar

Impressive growth for tech sector

It seems that stars have aligned and 2021 is expected to be a breakthrough year for Pakistan’s tech sector. With investments in start-ups reaching new peak in the year of pandemic, we are almost certain of touching new heights

Ignite former CEO Shahjahan Chaudhary

New opportunities for SMEs

The micro, small and medium enterprises sector is advised to roll up its sleeves for hard work in 2021 to recover losses incurred during 2020. Year 2021 will offer numerous opportunities

UNISAME President Zulfikar Thaver

Start-ups on upswing

The start-up ecosystem over the past 18 months or so has seen a positive shift. Pakistan has turned the corner and is now on track to see accelerated growth in many segments of the start-up ecosystem

P@SHA President Jehan Ara

Remittance boom to continue

During 2021, remittances are expected to reach $26 billion. Restrictions on physical travel, anti-money laundering efforts by the government and lower demand from exchange companies will push remittances higher

Pak-Kuwait Investment Co Head of Research Samiullah Tariq

Steel sector – domestic and international potential

Despite the recent increase in demand, the steel sector can experience yet another difficult year in its history

Pakistan Association of Large Steel Producers Secretary-General Syed Wajid Bukhari

Bright future awaits EVs

We see a silver lining in 2021 for electric vehicles as a year-long confusion about EV policy and counter policy is finally settled. With all odds, the electric vehicle penetration will be visible in Pakistan

Electric Vehicle Technology Consultant (EVTC) CEO Shaukat Qureshi

Tough year ahead for food sector

Year 2020 was very critical for the food sector as production of major crops like wheat and sugarcane was less than expected. Pakistan needs to address several issues related to the agriculture sector to avoid any food crisis in 2021

Cereal Association of Pakistan Founder and Chairman Muzammil Chappal

Unclear future for restaurants

Outlook depends on how the situation regarding Covid-19 vaccine develops. If the lockdown situation continues, then restaurants will suffer. On the flipside, if the Covid-19 situation improves, we are hopeful that the sector will boom

All Pakistan Restaurants Association Convener Ather Chawla

FDI to be impressive in 2021

Potential sectors which can attract FDI include power, telecom – potential auction of 5G licence in Pakistan, oil and gas exploration on account of auction of new blocks for hydrocarbon discovery and auto as new entrants are expected to enter the market

Arif Habib Limited Head of Research Tahir Abbas

2021 hiring outlook

The job market depends on Covid vaccine and its application; if everything materialises accordingly, job markets will get better in 2021

Pakistan Institute of Labour, Education and Research Executive Director Karamat Ali

Upsurge in IPOs

Given the current pipeline, 2021 is likely to see more IPOs than 2020, which should give a boost to investor sentiment

BMA Capital Executive Director Saad Hashemy

Published in The Express Tribune, January 1^st, 2021.

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