The political chessboard

Political temperature is high, and uncertainty abounds. The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) is on a roll with the next rallies planned for Peshawar, Multan and Lahore and an ensuing war of words touching some sensitive nerve points.

Interestingly, the 11-party united opposition front means different things to different quarters. The government portrays it as an alliance of the corrupt, to evade accountability and malign state institutions. For PML-N, the PDM is the way to settle its score with two particular individuals and the establishment at large, whereas for PPP it is more of a tactical fight against the present government.

Yet, this unified opposition alliance should hardly be a surprise, given that they have all been pushed to the wall. Why then has there been nervousness in the government camp, as manifested by the Karachi episode? Firstly, no one expected that PML-N would pursue such a hard and targeted line of assault. Secondly, the timing of the PDM has overlapped with a wave of inflation that is already causing general unrest. And lastly, the participation of PTM and Mohsin Dawar in these rallies has also raised some eyebrows.

The PML-N has no stake in the current political dispensation and its hard stance is motivated by its desire to discredit PTI and its backers at any cost. Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz have therefore been hitting where it hurts the most. The PPP on the other hand, with its control over Sindh, has substantial skin in the game. And therefore, its narrative on the establishment is much more diluted.

But for a man on the street, pro- or anti-establishment politics mean little. Economy is what hits him the most. The lockdown caused by Covid-19 has already taken a toll and now rising commodity prices are directly impacting his life. With Covid on the rise again and likelihood of further lockdowns, a common man’s only worry is if he’d be able to put food on the table. And if there is any further escalation in electricity prices or increase in sales tax, to resume the IMF programme, it could be disastrous. Ironically however, such economic woes of the masses have only been a byline in PDM’s political slogans.

Nevertheless, the real question is: what does the immediate political future look like?

If the opposition thinks that its rallies will push the Prime Minister to an extent where he would resign, that seems highly unlikely. In 2014, the prolonged sit-in by the PTI could not displace the government. Why should it be any different this time?

However, PDM’s current line of attack can create enough pressure for the establishment to visibly distance itself from the PTI government. If that happens, Punjab is where the opposition can make a dent. That is PTI’s political Achilles’ heel. Moreover, if somehow the PDM is able to capitalise on general public discontent stemming from economic hardships, it could give the opposition much more momentum. But all this of course is contingent upon the PDM staying unified on its unyielding campaign and not letting the already visible cracks deepen within its own ranks.

The government must realise that the solution to the present political impasse does not lie in more political noise. Instead the government should focus on neutralising political flashpoints such as food inflation and governance vacuum in Punjab, and engage the opposition, or at least some fragments of it, in a political dialogue. Despite all the noise, if the government plays its cards well, it could smoothly sail through till the next elections, but fueling the fire further is not going to help. One thing however is clear: the 2023 elections are going to be much more contentious and cut-throat and therefore performance is where the PTI now needs to focus the most.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 3^rd, 2020.

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