Will change in the White House positively transform the world?

In his historic speech in Brandenburg gate, Berlin, in July 2008, the US presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, Barack Obama, asserted that his triumph in the American elections will not only transform the United States but also the entire world. Although, despite holding the office of president for eight years, Obama failed to bring structural changes in the world order, he tried his best to present a positive image of America and avoid unnecessary confrontation with adversaries.

Twelve years down the road, November 2020 US presidential elections pose a serious challenge not only to the American people but the world at large because if Trump is re-elected, one can expect an escalation in polarisation in the world order which is already facing a leadership crisis. Confrontations with China, Iran, World Health Organization (WHO) and cold relations with its European allies will not only worsen as a result of Trump’s re-election but domestic issues pertaining to race and immigration will further divide Americans if Trump is re-elected. Now, when Joseph Biden and Kamala Harris have been nominated by the Democratic Party to run for president and vice-president respectively, it will be a big challenge for both to win the November elections.

The Biden-Harris team has prepared a road map about how to govern the US in the domestic and foreign policy arena. According to the July 31, 2020 issue of Foreign Policy, “Joe Biden’s team of informal foreign policy and national security advisors has expanded to over 2,000 people, including 20 working groups spanning issues from diversity in national security to arms control, defense, intelligence, and homeland security, according to campaign officials and an internal list of the co-chairs of those groups.”

Composed of experts on the Middle East, South Asia, Africa, Europe and other parts of the world “the organization of the group offers insights into how Biden would seek to mold his foreign-policy agenda and turn back some of US President Donald Trump’s most controversial foreign policies, including the demonisation of refugees and the curtailing of women’s sexual and reproductive rights around the world, should he win the November presidential election. It also sheds light on the coterie of behind-the-scenes advisors, such as the East Asia expert Ely Ratner and Daniel Benaim, a Middle East specialist with deep ties to Biden, who are likely to take up top and mid-level posts in the Pentagon, State Department, intelligence community, and other agencies if Biden is elected”. Joseph Biden, who was vice-president for eight years with president Obama and has a rich experience in foreign and domestic policy issues wants that in case he wins the 2020 elections, not much time should be wasted in restoring America’s image; reducing polarisation with China, Iran and the WHO.

One cannot predict that change in the White House in the coming presidential elections will bring a qualitative change in the world order but given the homework done by his 20 working groups because of three main reasons one can expect a positive transformation of the world order. First, the Biden-Harris team will take damage control measures to restore America’s image which got badly shattered during the Trump administration. Biden has made it clear that if elected, he will respect the voice of American Muslims, support an independent Palestinian state while opposing annexation of Arab lands by Israel in the occupied West Bank and take a position against discrimination and violence against religious minorities in India.

Biden also clearly stated that the first decision which he will take as the US president will be to reverse Trump’s decision to withdraw from WHO. While on issues related to Iran and China, Biden will pursue a cautious policy based on diplomacy instead of coercion and threats. Such damage control measures will help the US to again play a leadership role in the world order.

Second, in order to control its growing budget deficit and debt it is also possible that the new Democratic administration under Biden and Harris will reduce defense/military expenditures. During FY2020-21, the US defense budget was $740.5 billion which is more than half of the global military expenditure. There may be resistance from the powerful military-industrial complex which is a beneficiary of a huge defense budget, but the White House will have to take a position to divert resources from defense expenditures to healthcare and development. Balancing the budget, which was a priority during the Clinton administration (1993-2001), should be revisited by Biden and Harris if they win the elections.

In view of the coronavirus pandemic, the US economy is in dire straits because hundreds of thousands of people lost their jobs and trillions of dollars of economic losses were incurred because of closure of businesses and payment of around $2 trillion to the unemployed. If there is a drastic cut in defense expenditures and rise in taxes for the wealthy, one can expect that in the coming three years American economy can bounce back.

Third, the Biden-Harris team will have to make sure that the legacy of the Trump administration which cast a negative shadow on the world order is reversed. But, without a majority in the Senate, the White House will not be able to implement its foreign policy agenda. Currently, the Republican Party has a majority in the Senate and if Democrats are able to break the Republicans’ hold from the upper house of Congress, it will be possible for them to take major foreign policy initiatives ranging from mending fences with China and Iran and compelling Israel to agree for a viable Palestinian state.

Anti-Americanism which has surged throughout the world in the last 20 years is a major reality and for Biden and his Democratic Party, it will be a big challenge to reverse it by annulling steps the Trump administration took which augmented hostility against America particularly in the Muslim world. Biden has pledged that after gaining control of the White House he will cancel the travel ban which President Trump imposed on some Muslim countries.

In order to pre-empt the Democratic Party from winning the elections, President Trump is raising various issues like making Harris a controversial figure for having foreign parents. According to the American Constitution, anyone born in the US is eligible to contest for president and vice-president and Kamala was born in California to a Jamaican father and Indian mother. Trump also suggested postponing the elections by arguing that with the pandemic, pursuing the postal ballot option will augment chances of fraud in the elections. According to the August 8, 2020 issue of The Economist, “with less than three months to go until polling day, a president talking up the threat of fraud and a virus keeping people at home, Americans are understandably worried about this year’s presidential elections. Even in more normal times, America’s system of casting and counting ballots is more complicated and inconvenient than it should be.” In this scenario, the November elections must be actively participated by American voters in order to restore the global image of the US.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 21^st, 2020.

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