Contest for supremacy

In a bid to attain or retain a superpower status, China and the US have come to the brim of a dangerous escalation. China believes the US is making an all-out effort to contain China’s peaceful rise and influence whereas the US views China as a serious threat to its security interests, prosperity, liberal democracy and values. Reciprocal closures of consulates, sanctioning officials and business enterprises, tweaking tariffs to ignite tension and verbal brawls have not only added to the already edgy relations but are reflective of fierce competition that has set in between both countries.

There are three possible scenarios that could possibly emerge in the wake of this competition as is being observed by various scholars, academia, and practitioners of policymaking from their respective standpoint. One: Will China and the US be able to find common grounds for cooperation and reconcile despite “clashing geopolitical ambitions”? Two: Is this global power competition fast turning into a cold war dividing the rest of the world thinking who to look to? Three: Is rivalry fostered by global power ambitions driving both countries in a consequentially perilous state and it has the potential to fuel a hot war? The world is overawed as the outcome of the confrontation leading to a hot war would leave the world caught in the crossfire.

The reconciliation between China and the US is a desired scenario. The fact is that there exists interdependence between both countries to an extent of indispensability. The current competition is different from what the US had with the Soviet Union. China is lot different from the USSR as it is a major trading partner, holder of the large US debt and critically central to the US economy. A fierce competition fueling a cold war would entail regional as well as global repercussions. There exists a sense in both camps that if reconciliation fails, it might trigger “dangerous miscalculations” on both sides. Managing great-power conflict would, therefore, be a tight rope walk and require both leaderships to reflect political prowess and statesmanship. Confrontation will potentially drive the world into paying in terms of economy and polarisation. Reconciliation, therefore, is not a rare possibility. It is possible as Tom Fowdy suggests, China and the US can find a way out of this ugly situation if “Washington can ultimately put to bed the idea that cooperation and stability in bilateral relationship is somehow antagonistic to American interests”.

The cold war between China and the US is a scenario that, many analysts believe, has already set in and certain measures and counter-measures suggest that both countries are fast falling for it. The last century’s US-USSR Cold War was too a contest for global supremacy but was primarily driven by geostrategic considerations. In case of a US-China cold war, economy and trade appear to be key drivers along with political influence. Both countries will increasingly find themselves in an intense cold war mindset if they fail to align their core economic interests. And finally, the continuing rivalry and colliding interests may potentially trigger serious confrontations turning it into a hot war. The hot war seems to be a rare possibility as there is a strong realisation in saner circles in Beijing and Washington that violent conflict may bring irreversible harm to both the countries. Nonetheless, hot war remains a possibility.

Heightened competition for global supremacy, as it goes, may become disruptive for the international system. Given the evolving competitive nature of US-China relations, it would be a shared responsibility of global powers to help shape a sustainable international order for global peace. In the quest for global supremacy, China and the US must remain cognizant of red lines.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 16^th, 2020.

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