From trade war to cold war

Battle over technological advancement accelerating this transition

ISLAMABAD:

What is clear is that the Sino-US trade war is creeping into a new cold war and the autonomy of Hong Kong, coupled with battle over technological advancement, is expediting this transition.

China’s manoeuvre to pass a new security law for Hong Kong, which makes it easier to punish protesters and reduces the city’s autonomy, has raised eyebrows in the West. Details of 66 articles of the law were kept secret until it was passed.

Crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces are now punishable by a maximum sentence of life in prison. Vandalism of public transport, which is a common occurrence during public protests, can be considered an act of terrorism.

The new law empowers Beijing to open a security office in Hong Kong with its own law enforcement personnel, which can send cases to the mainland to be tried if it deems necessary.

Beijing has also been empowered to interpret the law and in case of conflict of laws, Beijing’s law would take precedence over Hong Kong law.

It may be recalled that Hong Kong went back to China from British control in 1997. This transfer was under the framework of a mini-constitution called the Basic Law establishing a “one country, two systems” principle.

Certain freedoms for Hong Kong got protection under this system. These include freedom of assembly and speech, an independent judiciary and some democratic rights – freedoms that are Greek to any other part of mainland China.

Under an article of the same agreement, Hong Kong was supposed to enact its own national security law but it never happened because of unpopularity of such a measure. The new security law has been introduced by China through a decree bypassing the city’s parliament. Critics insist that introduction of the law in this manner is tantamount to the breach of “one country, two systems” principle, which was and remains cardinal to the cessation of Hong Kong to Britain.

However, technically there does not seem to be a legal issue with the adopted procedure as China could pass decrees for Hong Kong under the Basic Law.

Restrictions

The US and her allies blasted China for the new law, introducing measures to counter Chinese response but these are not likely to put a dent on the Chinese resolve.

The US State Department has announced an end to the sale of military equipment and other technologies to Hong Kong. Not surprisingly, the US Commerce Department suspended the export licence exceptions and preferential treatment for Hong Kong the same day.

Some other measures were more targeted in nature, punishing Chinese officials who may be instrumental in curtailing Chinese freedom. The US Senate has unanimously passed a bill that would require sanctions on Chinese officials involved in eroding Hong Kong’s autonomy.

The House of Representatives has also passed legislation that sanctions banks doing business with Chinese officials involved in implementing the national security law. Of course, these would be difficult to truly implement because of the myriad of companies hiding the identity of individuals owning them.

The other aspect of the seemingly coordinated response of the US and its allies hinges on helping Hong Kong residents in escaping the anticipated persecution following the new security law.

Britain is introducing a framework for some three million Hong Kong residents to be able to settle in the United Kingdom and apply for citizenship.

Australia is also working on a similar option. Taiwan has opened a new office to facilitate people fleeing Hong Kong. US Congress has introduced legislation to make it easier for Hong Kong denizens to be labelled as refugees and admitted to the United States.

More battlegrounds

Yet, Hong Kong is only one of the battlegrounds between the US and China. The two countries are at daggers drawn on the issue of launch of 5G, which is being spearheaded by Huawei Technologies.

The US is gently nudging her allies to do her bidding on stalling the sprawling influence of Huawei. US President Donald Trump has called 5G “a race America must win”.

But why is 5G such a big deal? In simple words, it is fifth generation wireless network that will give much faster internet connections so that one can download an entire feature film in as less as 60 seconds.

But, because of the way it works, it’s about to change the way lots of other things connect to the internet. The 5G technology will power the much-vaunted “Internet of Things”, when all connectable domestic devices will be linked not just to the internet but to one another.

Just imagine ordering ‘Alexa’ or ‘Siri’ to park your driverless car when you are ready to go and it is done as a walk in your garage.

As late as January 2020, the British prime minister had categorically stated that Huawei could have 35% share in the 5G market with the caveat that the company would not be allowed to supply core elements of networks, where confidential customer data is stored.

This statement was met with vociferous objections by the rebel Conservative MPs and the Trump administration that Beijing could use the Chinese company’s kit to spy on western countries.

The British government took a major U-turn on July 14, indicating that Huawei would be banned from supplying kits for Britain’s 5G mobile networks as reliance on Chinese company’s products could pose an unmitigated threat to the security of Britain’s telecom infrastructure.

Also, the existing gear already installed by Huawei would need to be removed by 2027.

Huawei’s foothold in Europe

This sudden shift in British stance is disconcerting for the Chinese. In 2005, Britain was the first country to offer Huawei a foothold in Europe. Today, Europe is the largest market for Huawei’s products after China.

Huawei mingled in the British culture by financing university research and a charity started by Prince Charles. As recently as last month, Huawei announced plans to spend $1.25 billion on a new research centre in Cambridge.

Not surprisingly, China has not taken kindly Britain’s belligerent gestures. China’s Ambassador in London Liu Xiaoming has warned that Britain would “bear the consequences” of treating China with hostility.

Britain’s policy departure has to be seen in the context of hardening American stance towards Huawei. American authorities have spent more than a year influencing allies to keep Huawei out of communications networks, warning that the company is a surrogate for Beijing and a threat to national security.

In May, the Trump administration announced a rule that would bar Huawei and its suppliers from using American technology and software. Although the decision would take effect in September, Huawei’s supply lines are already being disrupted as US companies strive to work with new vendors in compliance with the anticipated effect of the rule.

All eyes are now set on Germany which will decide Huawei’s future in the country in autumn this year. If Germany follows Britain’s path and caters to American influence, it is likely that much of Europe would follow suit, thwarting Huawei’s swift ascendancy to the throne of 5G.

There is no sign to suggest that Germany would ditch Huawei. On the contrary, Europe may assert its technological independence by choosing a new route of combining features of Huawei technologies with the indigenous ones.

What is clear is that the Sino-US trade war is creeping into a new cold war and the autonomy of Hong Kong coupled with the battle over technological advancement is expediting this transition.

The writer is a civil servant having LLM from the Harvard Law School, MSC from the University of Oxford and LLM from the University of Turin/WIPO academy

 

Published in The Express Tribune, August 10^th, 2020.

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