Policing the crisis

Everyone is having a corona moment nowadays. The fundamental question at this point pivots around whether we can police the corona crisis or not? If it is possible then what should be the blueprint of action? This drives us to take a look at the outcome of closed cases of coronavirus in different countries of the world.

By closed cases we mean the coronavirus cases that were either positive or negative. These cases are a measure of effort of a country to detect a patient suffering from the coronavirus — voluntarily or involuntarily — and treat him or her successfully or unsuccessfully. The cases follow a death peak on account of population composition. A country with a lower youth bulge may achieve the death peak earlier than one having a larger young population. Moreover, a better medical technique for treatment and imposition of more disciplined social distancing may shift the fatality spike as well.

As per statistics, there are more than 137,000 closed cases in the world out of which over 115,000 patients were either discharged or recovered and over 21,000 expired during the process of treatment. This hinges the fatality rate on the basis of closed cases at nearly 15%. It is pertinent to note that the total diagnosed cases of coronavirus across the globe is currently over 470,000 which clearly indicates that the medical efficiency level in terms of successful treatment of patients is both slow and low.

For example, in Italy, the fatality rate of closed cases is pegged at nearly 45%, which is abnormally high. Nonetheless it depends upon three major factors. First, a limited number of individuals were tested for the virus and detected at the start of the virus spread. Second, there was a low efficiency of the country’s medical system to successfully treat the patients to overcome the crisis. Third, extremely insufficient policing measures were adopted to implement lockdown to control the situation.

In Spain, the death rate of closed cases hovers around 40%. The situation is likely to deteriorate further with the passage of time.

In the US and the UK, the expiry rate of patients in closed cases is beyond 70%, indicating that these countries are finding it extremely hard to deal with the crisis.

The closed cases of coronavirus in China and South Korea point that the virus is apparently under control as the death rates are below 5% and 3%, respectively. It indicates that these countries have conducted massive diagnostic tests, treated the patients successfully and maintained a rigorous policing regime to contain it.

Furthermore, the closed cases of Germany and France project fatality rates at 5% and 25%, respectively. It depicts that Germany may be fighting it better than France. Interestingly, in Iran, those who fail to survive in closed cases are nearly 20%, which is higher than the world fatality average of closed cases.

Though we have only diagnosed about 1,100 corona cases in Pakistan, these figures might be misleading as the number of deaths is rising and the number of successfully treated patients is relatively low. It is highly likely that we may not be effectively detecting all the cases making it difficult to contain the virus. Moreover, the number of recovered patients indicates the low efficiency of our health system. Lastly, we are also failing to police it properly as social isolation is not being implemented or followed in letter and spirit. With a high youth percentage, we may also expect a delayed fatality peak.

Hence, policing the crisis demands dealing with it at multiple levels in a dynamic manner. The political leaders, at various levels, need to take to the streets and visit every house of their constituencies to guide, convince and lead the people to police the crisis. Merely instructing the law enforcement agencies and the army to impose selective social quarantine may not be sufficient as it can neither save human lives nor rescue the economy.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 27^th, 2020.

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