Coronavirus — is it time to panic?

Coronavirus has made its way to Pakistan and panic has ensued. Let’s clarify a few myths, the first one being: you do not need a mask. As it is, masks are already being sold at 10 times the original price. But you don’t need a mask to protect yourself and it will certainly not protect you. The surgical mask, the most common type used, only ensures that you do not infect others with your droplet infections but does not grant protection against a smaller virus. It’s used by doctors and the hospital staff to prevent infecting patients during a procedure. Yes, if you are suffering from the flu or cold, then you should wear this so as not to infect others. But if you have the flu, it is better to stay at home than going to school or work. The specialised mask, the N95, is also called a respirator and is meant to protect hospital staff while dealing with infectious patients. It requires specialised training and testing to properly fit your face as it’s difficult to wear for long periods of time. If it does not fit properly, the seal will break, making the wearer susceptible to infections. While living abroad, I used to have an annual fitness test and certification to use N95 masks.

So, if masks are not helpful then how do we protect ourselves against this virus? Simple hygiene principles will work. Wash your hands frequently with soap or an alcohol-based hand sanitizer, for at least 20 seconds. Cover your mouth and nose when sneezing and cough into your elbow or a tissue paper which must be properly discarded later. Let’s also not shake hands for some time, and keep frequently-used surfaces clean. Moreover, avoid interacting with sick people; and if you are sick, then wear a mask or stay home.

The reason coronavirus is striking such a fear across the world is because many aspects of it are unknown and scientists are discovering something new every day. But from the known facts, we know that it does not kill like SARS or MERS, which had a fatality rate of 10% and 35%, respectively, but its more infectious than both and can kill more people in total. But what is the fatality rate of the coronavirus? In the beginning of any major outbreak, the initial fatality rate is always higher as doctors focus on the more severe cases and miss the milder ones. Once the milder ones are accounted for, the fatality rate drops. In Wuhan, the epicentre of this outbreak, the fatality rate was almost 5%, and was lower in the Hubei province. Outside China, the fatality rate is 1.5%. But data shows that countries with poor health systems are worse affected (Iran with a fatality rate of 10.6%) in contrast with a developed country like South Korea, where the fatality rate is as low as 0.6% among the 2,000 reported cases. But despite the overall fatality rate being lower than 1%, the virus should not be taken lightly. It’s deadlier for older people or those with pre-existing chronic diseases. My assumption, which is without data, is that Wuhan has a higher fatality rate because people rushed to the hospitals due to the panic of a new disease. Hospitals are known to spread infections further (100,000 die in the US annually due to hospital-acquired infections). In Pakistan, hospitals lack strict infection controls and should be avoided unless necessary. The medical staff that was overworked in Wuhan paid the ultimate price with their lives for this panic. Remember, sometimes panic is more dangerous than the virus itself.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 1^st, 2020.

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