US-Taliban peace deal: complexities ahead

The Taliban and the United States are all set to sign the most-awaited peace deal after holding 10 rounds of talks in the past 18 months. This is undoubtedly a moment of change for the entire Afghan nation where they may finally witness an end to the fratricidal violence and the beginning of peace. Afghan Taliban’s deputy leader Sirajuddin Haqqani’s recent Op-Ed in The New York Times further increased optimism due to his resolve to ensure an end to violence and the restoration of peace across Afghanistan. He also explicitly laid out a roadmap for Afghanistan’s future with the Taliban as political actors and stakeholders. His guarantee of ensuring women’s rights and an inclusive governance structure brings to fore the Taliban’s commitment to play a more political role than before.

Despite all this optimism, it seems impossible to avoid certain complexities while moving forward with the peace agreement. Firstly, the proposed seven-day truce is still ongoing and is a test for the Taliban and its affiliates on the battlefield. The sporadic attacks by the group may threaten the delicate truce. The “spoilers”, especially Daesh, may also disrupt the truce through small-scale attacks, thus further complicating the situation. In the absence of any neutral observer and communication mechanism between the US and the Taliban, it will be difficult to avoid the spoilers’ trap to derail the entire process.

Secondly, it is expected that after completing the seven-day ceasefire stipulation, the next step will be the exit of the US troops. In that case, the geographic scope of the truce could be possibly limited. It might be observed only to give a safe exit to the US troops. If the Taliban can exercise restraint for seven days only to achieve the long-desired goal of withdrawal of foreign troops, they may fulfil their commitments. But who will guarantee their long-term commitment to reduced violence once this objective is achieved? Both the Afghan security forces and the Taliban may try to fill in the security vacuum created by the withdrawal by demonstrating their strength which could make clashes between the two inevitable. Therefore, such intricacies need to be taken care of right now.

The Afghan government is itself embroiled in a political crisis. The controversy erupted after Ashraf Ghani was declared as the winner of last year’s presidential elections. Abdullah Abdullah, Gulbuddin Hekmetyar, Abdul Rashid Dostum and Rahmatullah Nabil have outright rejected the election results and have announced forming a parallel government. This brewing domestic political crisis could encourage the spoilers of peace. Moreover, with his legitimacy questioned, Ghani and his team will face enormous stumbling blocks to ensure a smooth transition in any US-Taliban post-deal scenario.

At this crucial juncture of time, Afghanistan cannot afford another turmoil and infighting. The goodwill which has been generated between the Taliban and the US direly requires the backing of a unified Afghan nation. Political and ethnic fragmentation due to political disagreements can further add to the fragility which the country is currently grappling with. Any efforts for intra-Afghan dialogue in the case of the US-Taliban peace deal will not materialise if the Afghan government is kept out of the loop. Secondly, the Afghan government is responsible for maintaining and observing a truce with the Afghan Taliban, and therefore distancing it from the peace talks by both the political opposition and the Taliban would not help in reaching a final intra-Afghan agreement. The need of the hour is to understand the delicacies and complexities of this particular moment. The international community, especially Afghanistan’s neighbours, may step in to help and encourage various Afghan political actors to reconcile the differences caused by the presidential election controversy. Likewise, it is a testing time for the entire Afghan nation to tell the world that it can stand united and strong to gracefully tread through this moment of historical change.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 26^th, 2020.

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