What’s past is prologue

The human species is facing a threat to its survival from two major problems; climate change and nuclear war. The year 2019 began with a political horror show when Indian soldiers in Pulwama were attacked by a disgruntled Ahmed Dar, who died to avenge being humiliated at the hands of Indian soldiers. Then followed the dogfight between Pakistan and India resulting in the Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman being captured after Pakistan shot down his aircraft. He was handed over to India in the interest of peace, but did it work?

India elected Narendra Modi once again with an overwhelming majority. Imran Khan hoped a victorious BJP would be willing to make peace with Pakistan. However, Modi rejected Khan’s peace offers and equated them with a sign of weakness.

On August 5, India annexed Kashmir and imposed a communication blackout forcing eight million people into a lockdown. Kashmiris literally go to other cities to check their emails and make phone calls. The sound of gunfire on New Year’s Eve may not be understood as the advent of the year 2020 in Kashmir because it might as well be their bedtime and wake-up alarm.

Israel has been busy holding multiple elections and still failing to elect a prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu is clinging to power to escape the corruption prosecution and possible jail time. One could argue, it’s better Israel is busy in internal matters because then it has less time killing Palestinians and annexing their land.

The US killed Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the former ISIS leader. President Trump came very close to signing a peace deal with the Taliban, before abruptly tweeting the end of it, citing the death of a US soldier by the Taliban. The rest of us knew that that was an “alternative fact”. The reality was that the Taliban had rejected shaking hands with Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan President, before the peace deal was signed and announced to the world. The Taliban do not want to talk to the Kabul regime before signing a peace deal with the Americans. They call Ghani an American “puppet”.

This week, the US embassy in Baghdad was attacked by protestors avenging the killing of 24 Kataib Hezbollah members. The US had attacked the Iran-backed militia on Sunday in airstrikes because it accused the group of attacking an Iraqi military base killing an American contractor. The militia had denied involvement in the attack though. Interestingly, The New York Times said that, “the scenes there on Tuesday stirred memories of the seizure of the [US] embassy” in Tehran in 1979 and the 2012 Baghdad Assault, as if these attacks always happen without a reason. Ending aggression will end terror. The formula is simple, but execution is complicated.

Aggression creates terror and violence. Despite the death of the ISIS leader and the peace talks with the Taliban, which may return soon, the odds are against peace. There is a paramount difference between ending battlefield hostilities and ending a war.

India last month enacted the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which makes religious discrimination the law of the land. The CAA and National Register of Citizens (NRC) complement each other by ensuring the exit or imprisoning of Indian Muslims and refusing entry to incoming Muslims. The CAA-NRC duo is a distraction from Modi’s bad economic management. The skirmish along the Line of Control (LoC) allows a distraction from the unexpected protests resulting from the CAA-NRC duo.

An irrational and violent India is a blessing for the weapons manufacturers because they see it as a huge market for moving their inventory. However, weapons in the hands of a lunatic India only means trouble. India is busy in self-immolation but the heat of the inferno will reach across the region. Peace is too much to expect.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 2^nd, 2020.

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