Afghanistan presidential vote and the peace process

Post the ouster of Taliban in 2001, Afghanistan held its sixth election in 2019. It wasn’t any better. In fact, the voter turnout has declined since the country first held national elections in 2004. Initially, numbers announced by the election commission suggested 2.7 million Afghans voted on September 28; less than a third of registered voters. However, if hundreds of thousands of votes are discarded, that turnout figure could drop even lower. In the first election post-Taliban, turnout was about 70%.

The results were expected in mid-October, but are now set to be released on November 14. The election was characterised by low turnout, allegations of fraud, and multiple candidates’ claims of victory. The Afghan government has made some progress in reducing corruption and implementing its budgetary commitments, but faces domestic criticism for its failure to guarantee security and prevent insurgent gains.

Free and fair elections are considered to be a first step towards a democratic system. Unfortunately, countries like Afghanistan are still struggling to emerge as a democratic state. The unsettled condition of Afghan politics, intra-state instability and non-state violence complicate potential peace negotiations and resist democratic activities.

The presidential elections, originally scheduled for April, were held after two delays — on September 28 — despite widespread expectations that it would again be delayed to facilitate the formation of an interim national unity government. Voting has been previously riddled with fraud. The recent election aimed to change that with biometric devices collecting voter data. The devices required a photograph and fingerprint from each voter and would only accept votes during the hours when the polling station was supposed to be open.

A contested parliamentary election in October 2018 and uncertainty around the presidential election in September 2019 have enhanced political instability. The humanitarian situation also remains critical, as the possibility of a prolonged drought and other resource scarcity issues threaten greater levels of displacement and human suffering.

The last peace negotiations between US officials and Taliban representatives held in Qatar in October 2018 focused on four main issues: Taliban assuring it will not allow foreign armed groups and fighters to use Afghan land to conduct attacks on other states; complete withdrawal of US and NATO forces; an intra-Afghan dialogue; and a permanent ceasefire. After the completion of nine rounds of talks in August, both sides indicated a peaceful agreement was achievable.

However, in September, Trump declared the peace talks “dead”, pointing at a Taliban-claimed deadly attack in Kabul. Trump also called off separate secret meetings planned with the Taliban and Afghan President at his Camp David presidential retreat.

Robert Gallimore, a former British Army officer who served as a mentor to the Afghan forces, said the situation in Afghanistan is exactly like Vietnamisation, which was not only transfer of authority but also culpability; they fought and died without knowing the enemy. The programme’s central idea was to “expand, equip, and train South Vietnamese forces and assign to them an ever-increasing combat role, at the same time steadily reducing the number of US combat troops”. American forces were also reduced by 2000, according to General Scott Miller.

The Taliban have been waging a war demanding the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. Nearly 2,400 American troops have died and more than 20,000 wounded since the US intervened in Afghanistan. In 2004, after the adoption of a new Constitution, Karzai became Afghanistan’s first-ever democratically elected president. Over 31,000 civilian deaths due to war-related violence have been documented; 29,900 civilians have been wounded. Over 111,000 Afghans, including civilians, soldiers and militants, are estimated to have been killed in the conflict since 2001. Fast forward September 2019, at least 331 pro-government forces and 150 civilians have been killed in several attacks. On Election Day nearly 200 attacks were carried out by the Taliban across the country. The Taliban called voting a “foreign plot to extend occupation”, which goes against Islam and Afghan culture.

Peace talks and negotiations do not guarantee but at least offer some hope of ending the war. The world has no better option in Afghanistan than returning to talks with the Taliban. Washington would have to accept uncertainty over the timing of its military withdrawal. Troops and aid are US bargaining chips and perhaps some US military presence would give intra-Afghan negotiations the best prospects for success.

Will the Taliban, Kabul and other anti-Taliban powerbrokers agree on what the Afghan state and security arrangements will look like, is open to debate. Both sides may face resistance from within. But a US-Taliban-Kabul agreement will pave the way for a peace process. It is perhaps the only way to end the war, allowing withdrawal of US and NATO forces without prompting further chaos.

Diplomatic ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been halted once again. In mid-October, Afghanistan closed its consulate in Peshawar over the removal of the Afghan flag from a market in the city, during a police raid. The Afghan embassy maintains Afghanistan owns that area and it was purchased before Pakistan’s creation. The next day, Afghan Ambassador Atif Mashal went to Peshawar and hoisted the flag.

The district administration evicted 180 Afghan shopkeepers from the market and removed the Afghan flag after a contempt of court petition was filed in the Peshawar High Court by Syed Intekhab Haider Abidi, the market’s owner. The administration later handed over possession of the shops to the owner.

Three weeks later, Pakistan’s embassy in Kabul closed the visa section due to security reasons. The FO summoned the Afghan charge d’affaires over concerns about the safety of diplomatic personnel of the Pakistan Embassy in Kabul and its sub-missions. The Afghan diplomat was informed the embassy’s officers and staff had faced harassment in Kabul.

The Afghan envoy was reminded that as signatory to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Privileges and Immunities, 1961, the Afghan government was responsible for ensuring the safety and freedom of movement to the mission’s members.

The delay in election results is a recipe for trouble and has the potential of results being rejected, further aggravating the internal security situation in Afghanistan. The deteriorating diplomatic ties with the facilitator don’t either sit well with the peace process. The US, China and Russia are trying hard to achieve peace in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has entered a pivotal but highly uncertain situation. Both strategic restraint and strategic patience is required by the stakeholders to take the peace process further and free Afghanistan from the shackles of conflict and death.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 23^rd, 2019.

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