Kashmir looking up to Trump and UN General Assembly

It is said that when strategies fail to seek clear ends, policy drifts towards confrontation. Our policy on Kashmir is very clear and Kashmir stands out as our vital national interest. Academically speaking, if a vital interest is threatened, hurt or damaged it results in very serious harm to the nation and that is why strong measures including the use of force are recommended to be employed to safeguard and protect it. Realistically speaking, Kashmir being the bone of contention between India and Pakistan not only stands out as our vital interest but as an Indian vital interest too. Unwilling to compromise on the issue, both countries are locked in an unrelenting state of political deadlock. This deadlock has over the years done little to make any meaningful headway in the lives of the Kashmiris who have been waiting to exercise their rights of self-determination for over seven decades now. The end that Pakistan seeks in the Kashmir conflict is the end that the UN General Assembly advocated for the resolution of this dispute. The end that India seeks is a unilateral militaristic end that is drenched in the blood of Kashmiris, and the current Indian Kashmir strategy is very provocative and primed to lead to confrontation not only domestically with Kashmiris but also with its neighbour Pakistan, which will never step back from supporting the Kashmiri cause.

As our Prime Minister heads to Washington to address the UN General Assembly, Pakistan’s strategy on Kashmir is simple and clear. The Prime Minister will shake the world’s conscience through his speech and emphasise to the world leaders to stop being uncertain on their options on Kashmir. It’s time they got out of the mode of “strategic patience” and unambiguously demonstrated to India what it needs to do in Kashmir and when.

There are no good or bad strategies only good or bad influences and Prime Minister Modi’s promotion of the extreme ideology of Hindutva has unfolded a Kashmir strategy that only seeks and bleeds trouble. No matter how India promotes its drastic actions in Kashmir to the world (Prime Minister Modi will be addressing the UN General Assembly prior to Prime Minister Imran Khan’s address), it will be Prime Minister Khan’s words that the world will be more intent on hearing because unlike Modi, Khan will speak on behalf of the Kashmiri’s.

The life of the current Indian Kashmir strategy is likely to be short. It is even being predicted that Prime Minister Modi may lift the curfew before he addresses the UN General Assembly and even may announce an economic reform package for the locked-down occupied territory. Whatever may be the timings of lifting the curfew, the locking down and bringing life to a standstill in occupied Kashmir cannot go on forever.

Pakistan wants stability both on its eastern and western borders. It does not want to export any proxies and the world must notice the costs Pakistan is paying in building a fencing system on its western front with Afghanistan. Just a couple of days back a Pakistani major and sepoy were martyred while supervising the fencing work on the border. Pakistan doesn’t want Afghanistan to become a base of attack on the outside world and it also doesn’t want Afghanistan to become a base to spread destabilisation in the neighbouring countries. The world must also take notice of the continued Indian attempts to undo and prevent Pakistan’s rise. It must not take lightly the hollow threats of the Indian Military Chief as he hurled “his forces are ready to take back Azad and Jammu Kashmir and make it part of India” at Pakistan.

The UN General Assembly meets at a time when the security environment in the world is high on intimidations, bullying and threats and low on expectations, collaborations, and cooperation. The Indo-Pak standoff on Kashmir is clearly signaling the risks of a nuclear conflict. Saudi oil facilities have been hit with the drone attacks and nobody knows when and where another such attack may materialise and how the “Peninsula Shield Force”, the military arm of the GCC, or the US may react. The most disturbing contradiction is in the foreign policy of the existing superpower, the US, and the rising power, China. While US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo termed the drone attacks on the Saudi oil infrastructure as “an act of war” and suggested Iran is the culprit, China announced an investment of $280 billion in the Iranian oil gas and petrochemical sectors on the occasion of its Foreign Minister’s visit to Iran a few days back. There are clear indications that rival blocks of aligned states are fast taking shape and preparing for an armed struggle to hold the balance of power in their respective regions.

As the world leaders gather at the UN General Assembly, President Trump must make a clear choice. He can either continue his election promises of “dealing with his own problems and letting others deal with theirs the best they can” or utilise the power that makes America great to resolve outstanding conflicts like Kashmir. The flow of oil from the Gulf region must also not stop as this will only damage the global economy and would surely threaten US economic prosperity as well.

President Trump has his work cut out. He can go down in history as the president that engaged in peace talks and crisis diplomacy simultaneously on three fronts — Kashmir, Iran, and Afghanistan, or he may also end up getting ticked as another US wartime president who presided over wars that could have easily been prevented and which America should never have fought.

The time is ticking and unfortunately for the US President and the world, this time around a conflict also showcases a nuclear ticking clock.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 22^nd, 2019.

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