Getting Kashmir right

Long before PM Modi cast a colonising gaze on Kashmir’s freedom, his critics were convinced his politics was an exercise in socio-religious polarisation. This assumed that any surge in Hindu nationalism was designed to facilitate a domestic divide-and-rule policy. But the dynamics today are much different. Notions of a “divided” India are being used to fuel a far-right “convergence” in the country: diehard Modi critics backing BJP proposals in the upper house, vast politicisation of top courts, state-led detention camps, a stronger foothold of the RSS in mainstream politics, and the rapid departure of dissent from public discourse. Thus, born out of these shifts is the central theme of Modi’s politics: the greater the external projections of a divisive India, the stronger his party’s resolve for a domestic counteroffensive.

It is against this backdrop that Pakistan’s diplomatic options on Kashmir appear more nuanced than anticipated.

Firstly, internationalising the dispute helps capture India’s narrative where it’s most vulnerable — Kashmir as an internal issue. The presence of UN resolutions on the bilateral dispute, and the Simla Pact is evidence to the contrary. In fact, India’s Ministry of External Affairs last month acknowledged the dispute as strictly bilateral to Washington.

Moreover, the Instrument of Accession which formed the basis for the Indian claim on Kashmir was to be followed by a plebiscite to place Kashmiris at the centre of the decision making process and Pakistan on an equal footing with India. No democratic arrangement occurred in seven decades to let Kashmiris decide between India, Pakistan or their independence. Slogans of Kashmir becoming “an integral part of India” carry nothing but the unilateral will of Delhi.

Secondly, Modi’s abrupt move threatens to drive the separatist sentiment to a full-scale resistance. India faces several insurgencies, and Kashmir could be a welcome addition to the list. Its history of resisting the Indian state presents a justification for continued violence in the region, especially when the resulting hostilities bolster Modi’s “One Nation, One Constitution” Hindu nationalist design.

The state’s sweeping abilities to introduce curfews and terrorism charges (without due process) could usher new waves of violent nationalism. The long-term consequences of Delhi’s provocation threaten to outweigh the horrors of the present-day lockdown.

Pakistan also views the scrapping of Article 370 as a dangerous precedent for democratic rule in South Asia. The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act was endorsed by the upper and lower houses — as if the Parliament mirrored the will of seven million Kashmiris. This use of parliamentary consensus to alter constitutionality sets a dangerous precedent.

Interestingly, India’s handling of Kashmir is propelling Pakistan’s efforts for worldwide attention. Tear gas and pellet guns have resurfaced at rallies. Arrests and protests have intensified. Local journalists appear in military custody. Accusations of false-reporting have been hurled at the press. Petitions challenging the revocation and lockdown were heard by the Supreme Court, but denied immediate ruling. Yet, a heroic Modi could still be seen underlining the merits of a free India.

The biggest challenge for Pakistan lies in navigating policy differences among major powers. Its position on Kashmir gained early traction in the UNSC talks, when members urged both countries to resolve the dispute “bilaterally”. However, the fact that none except China questioned India’s resistance to bilateral dialogue, says a lot about future impediments. It is in Pakistan’s interests to be aware of all potential geopolitical considerations driving this reluctance, and exercise even the slightest strategic leverage for future headway on Kashmir.

With resentments simmering beneath indefinite curfews, it is unlikely that peace in Kashmir would prevail by force instead of engagement. If a stronger military presence is aimed at achieving that, presumably, it would have succeeded decades ago.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 2^nd, 2019.

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