Enemy number one

Any success or gains by PM's US trip are likely to be ephemeral as Pakistan is going to sink or swim with China

The United States of America’s core issue with Pakistan is China. The US views China as a peer competitor — as a state that has both the capability and the motivation to challenge the US hegemony, especially in Asia. And it sees China in the same way it viewed the rise of Japan after the Meiji Restoration and Germany under Wilhelm II, in the 19^th century — the powers that sought to redesign the international system to their advantage and challenge the existing hegemony in their region, instead of cooperating with the status quo. An example of this revisionism can be seen in the East and South China seas as China builds islands housing military installations that will not only allow China to dominate the area but more importantly, provide protection to its trading route as it moves towards becoming the largest economy in the world, over the coming decades.

China’s economy has grown from $1 trillion to over $13 trillion since 2001. This has allowed China to transform its military and set the stage for an intense security competition, between the world’s two great powers, as China gradually seeks to implement its own version of the Monroe doctrine. On the other hand, during the same time period, the US got distracted by a myriad of conflicts, squandering its resources in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Realising its error, the US decided to refocus on China a few years ago, as Obama unveiled the Asia Pivot — a policy aimed at containing China. From the Air-Sea Battle doctrine, to the promotion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the nuclear deal with India, the US made it abundantly clear that China is its enemy number one. Under the current US President, Donald J Trump, the confrontation has taken a direct approach, as evidenced by the trade war and recent US B-52 bomber flights over the East and South China seas. Also, Trump’s decision to pull back troops from the Middle East and Afghanistan are in line with the US policy, allowing greater resource mobilisation against China.

However, the US pivot came as no surprise to the Chinese, whose recent history is riddled with foreign intervention. From the British, to the French and the Japanese, China was brutalised for over a hundred years between 1839 and 1949. In response to the Asia Pivot, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — a project estimated to cross $1 trillion. And it is Pakistan’s role in the BRI that is of utmost concern to the US.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the largest project within the BRI, estimated at $68 billion. And to understand the significance of this project, one only needs to look at the map. The biggest threat to China exists in the East and South China seas. Approximately 64 per cent of China’s maritime trade passes through these waters, surrounded by countries allied with the US (i.e. Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc) and who view China as a threat. Through its own resources in the region and its allies, the US can successfully mount a blockade of Chinese trade in the East and South China seas in the event of a conflict, with catastrophic consequences for China.

The only alternative route for China, to escape a potential blockade is through Pakistan. Not only does Pakistan offer a land route to the landlocked Central Asian Republics but through the Gwadar port, it offers a sea route to Europe and the Middle East. Thus, Pakistan has become the Achilles’ heel in the US policy to contain China and a danger to the US hegemony in the region. Through CPEC, Pakistan has become integral to China’s national security and it is for this reason that even a small remark by a Pakistani minister forces Pakistan’s leadership to fly to China and clarify its position vis-à-vis CPEC.

While some in the media have tried to underestimate the importance of CPEC to China and others have raised doubts about its benefit to Pakistan, for the US, CPEC trumps all other issues in its relationship with Pakistan. Therefore, any success or gains by Prime Minister Imran Khan in the current trip to the US are likely to be ephemeral because in the long-term Pakistan is going to sink or swim with China.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 25^th, 2019.

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