Imran Khan is here to stay — for now

The plan ‘A’ has failed. Before we move further, it’s important to recap what exactly the Plan A was? On July 25, 2018, when the party of cricketer-turned politician Imran Khan defeated traditional political forces — the PPP and the PML-N — in disputed elections, there was more than a hope that Imran would turn things around for the positive. Despite precarious economic situation and host of other challenges, voters and supporters of Imran genuinely had faith in him. The powers-that-be also thought that Imran having no baggage like Bhuttos and Sharifs would instill new hope and confidence among the people. Unlike his predecessors, elevation of Imran as Prime Minister would spur economic activities and allow rich overseas Pakistanis to bring back their investments to the country, creating an environment where revival of the PPP and the PML-N would become an uphill task. Also Imran being at the helm would help improve Pakistan’s ties with immediate neighbours including India given the fact that there would be no civil-military divide as had been the case during the PML-N term. But contrary to the forecast, the situation has gone from bad to worse. Economic plan, if there was any, could not take off. The unceremonious removal of Asad Umar as finance minister could not bring the desired results. Relations with neighbours particularly with India took the turn for the worse. The assessment that the PPP and the PML-N would struggle to find their feet once the PTI government took charge also proved wrong. The government’s follies as well as common challenges facing both the PPP and PML-N brought those political rivals on one platform. In Pakistan, there is a norm that masses usually want change once the government is at least two-year-old. Perhaps, this is our national psyche that we get fed up with faces so early. But very few had an idea that people would start talking about change of current set up despite the fact that it has yet to complete a year in office. That shows things did not go as per the plan. What next?

There has always been a contingency plan. One option is to seek an in-house change and reach out to reconcilable elements within the opposition ranks to break the stalemate. But that is a non-starter given the fact that then one has to reach a grand compromise that will certainly be hard to sell publicly. The other option is to give the current set-up more time to deliver, meaning stick with the Plan A for the time being. But for that, some reinforcements would certainly be required otherwise the Plan A cannot not be resurrected. Last week two crucial developments took place suggesting that reinforcements have already arrived. The effects of those reinforcements can already be felt in the National Assembly. After days of rumpus in the budget session, the proceedings have suddenly turned smooth. Leader of the Opposition Shehbaz Sharif was allowed to speak while orders for production of former president Asif Ali Zardari were also issued. The tone and tenor of Shehbaz and Zardari clearly reflected a change. The toned-down rhetoric among the opposition ranks perhaps had something to do with an important appointment announced while the entire nation was glued to their TV sets for the Pakistan-India Cricket World Cup match.

The crucial change means that the Plan A is still intact. And this is not good news for the PPP and the PML-N. There won’t be any let-up in the accountability drive or any relief for the jailed Nawaz Sharif and Zardari.

The message is clear — the system is still standing behind the current set-up. If the developments of the past few days are any guide, Imran Khan is here to stay, at least for now.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 24^th, 2019.

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