Uncertain times ahead

Pakistan has suffered inflation rates as high as 25-30% during half of the 1980s and the entire decade of the 1990s

There is no tradition in Pakistan of going on the streets protesting against price hikes, no matter how high the hike. Pakistan has suffered inflation rates as high as 25-30% during the period between the second half of the 1980s and the entire decade of the 1990s with no street protests. The only time the people of Pakistan went out protesting against price increase (of sugar) was in 1968-69 leading to the ouster of president Ayub Khan. This paved the way for General Yahya Khan’s martial law.

The street protests against Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto which had also ended in a military take-over — this time by General Ziaul Haq — was more of a manifestation of a managed public resentment against alleged rigging of the 1976 general elections, rather than the result of any anger against the state of the economy which was not all that bad. The third military take-over had taken place because of heightening misunderstanding between prime minister Nawaz Sharif and COAS General Musharraf and not because of any street protests against the deteriorating state of the economy which was in those days, a genuine issue.

So, those in the government who are worried to death that they would soon be confronted with mass agitation in the streets following the recent pre-budget all-round hikes in the prices of essentials and withdrawal of subsidies impacting the lives of lower middle and poorer classes of society and further intensification in the trend expected after the budget, need not lose their sleep because as per the tradition our people don’t take to streets to protest price increases.

And as well, the combined opposition would be too wary to bring the masses on the streets on any pretext, genuine or non-genuine, because that, they know, would lead to the wrapping up of the system as the establishment would not like to hold an election so soon fearing that despite rigging it would still fail to keep the combined opposition from winning the elections. Therefore, the opposition, knowing very well that such an agitation would either end in the fourth military take-over or a ‘legally’ sanctioned postponement of an election for at least three-years with the induction of an interim government of technocrats, is more likely to underplay its hand rather than go for the final kill soon after the announcement of the federal budget.

And the safest option available to the combined opposition under the circumstances is to let the PTI-led coalition government complete its five-year term but in a way as if every passing day was its last in the saddle. The opposition is likely to attempt to achieve this objective by using its numerical strength in the National Assembly.

The likely political scenario following the passage of the budget would most probably be chaotic. The passage of the budget itself is likely to be too messy considering the strength of the combined opposition in the National Assembly that includes many budget veterans on the opposition benches as opposed to the budget novices across the aisle on the treasury benches.

As the pressure of the opposition increases inside the National Assembly, it would be interesting to watch closely the performance of coalition partners as well as those from South Punjab who had joined the PTI just before the elections. Akhtar Mengal of the BNP-M with his four votes is already threatening to go over to the opposition. The PML-Q, the MQM-P and the GDA are in the coalition not because they have any affinity with the ideology of the PTI but because the past corruption record of most of their members was such that the safety of the government was the only options they were left with. And South Punjab is known to always go with the power in Islamabad.

Fearing an imminent collapse of the government, these coalition partners as well as the seasonal South Punjab birds are most likely to join hands with a faction-in-the-making within the PTI which would be prepared to sacrifice Imran Khan to save the government. It is at this stage that a compromise will have to be worked out between the establishment and the opposition to continue working the system with the minimum of loss of face on both the sides.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 8^th, 2019.

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