Modi is back — for better or for worse!

In his re-election campaign, Prime Minister Modi did his best to milk India-Pakistan hostility to the fullest. He is back in the saddle — for better or for worse. The question that presents itself begging for an answer is: what now?

Time is ripe for the perspicacious observer to sift the grain from the chaff and, thereafter, formulate an intelligent inference whether or not the BJP leader intends to carry out his pre-election rhetoric to the letter or, alternatively, to don the mantle of responsible governance during his second term in office. In so far as the tricky field of foreign affairs goes, logic would tend a tad towards the second-mentioned option. But, then, logic has hardly been the controlling force, in so far as sub-continental politics goes!

The result of the ponderous Indian elections will undoubtedly have a bearing on the shape of things to come, both bilaterally and within the region. It would not be advisable to confuse the pre-poll rhetoric with the eventual policy options of the new government. This is particularly true in the field of external affairs.

In making any analysis, one must not underestimate the undoubted impact on the sub-continental equation of the narrative of our new government on the issue. For the moment, suffice it to say that signals discernable so far have at best been — for want of a more appropriate word — mixed. Several variables essential to the formulation of policy vis-à-vis our (not too friendly) neighbour appear either not to have been taken into account or not afforded due diligence.

One factor that appears to have been totally ignored this far is that the essentials of India’s policy towards Pakistan were decided a long time ago with the obvious blessings of the Indian Establishment. These can logically be expected to continue, the results of the elections notwithstanding. Any change will merely be in nuance rather than substance. Much will depend on the narrative that ‘new’ Pakistan has on offer. The horizon so far has been cloudy at best.

The pity is that on occasions like this, all and sundry of our finest jump into the fray and insist on putting in their two-penny worth on the issue. Even those who have hardly had a nodding acquaintance with India-Pakistan relations gleefully grab the opportunity to pen down weighty dissertations evaluating the ‘options’.

An equitable settlement of bilateral contentious issues is the stepping stone to peace, rather than the other way around. Platitudes can never be a substitute for good sense. A mere ‘declaration of intent’ (much like the MoU) has no substance on its own unless it is backed up by tangible evidence of its essential ingredients.

The clamour for resumption of bilateral dialogue is neither here nor there. A re-oriented approach may be called for. It may perhaps be more politic to tackle the root causes of tension first before going for further Confidence Building Measures as has been the wont thus far. What one has witnessed in the — now on, now off — dialogue process has been akin to a surgeon opting for cosmetic surgery on a patient without waiting for the festering sores to heal first.

Real peace comes at a price; it hardly ever falls into the laps of those hankering after it. The two sides will need to demonstrate unvarnished commitment to transit into an ‘issue settlement’ mode. What is known in this age of cybernetics as ‘virtual peace’ is not in the interests of either country. There is talk of peace; yet no one, but no one, is prepared to pay the price. It may be advisable to put an end to the inane charade of mere hankering after peace and to get down to brass-tacks.

The result of India’s General Election is bound to have a profound impact on the shape of things to come. As for expectations from the mandarins of our Foreign Office, one can only hope and pray that they have diligently worked out the viable options and, if possible, formulated a plan ‘B’ — the one essential that has been conspicuously missing from our list of ‘policy options’ thus far!

Published in The Express Tribune, May 27^th, 2019.

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