If Modi loses Indian elections…

“He knows that he will lose the elections and that is why his face has turned pale. Every day he is thinking about losing in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Odisha and others,” says Mamata Banerjee, West Bengal CM and Trinomial Congress chief, about Narendra Modi.

With only couple of days left for the release of Indian election results, it is the right time to analyse a scenario that would emerge in case of Prime Minister Modi losing Indian elections despite all his efforts ranging from Pakistan bashing to exploiting Hindu religion for political purposes and pledging to absorb the occupied state of Jammu & Kashmir into the Indian Union by ending its special status. The cover story of a recent Times magazine edition also calls Modi as a divider of Indian nation, raising a basic question: Can India bear another five years of BJP rule?

The BJP and other Hindu communal parties worked overtime to win what they called ‘mother of all elections’. Stakes for the BJP — and its opponents too — were quite high in the recently-concluded elections because a landslide victory for Hindu fundamentalist and communal political party would have paved the way for declaring India a Hindu state by removing 42^nd amendment from the Indian constitution which guarantees India as a secular and democratic state. For the anti-BJP political parties and groups, it was their last chance to salvage their country from the disease of intolerance, bigotry and hatred against religious minorities, particularly Muslims. A second term for the BJP and its allies would mean an end of India’s democratic and secular identity and the deepening of communal divide in the country threatening the existence of India as a state.

Assuming if Modi loses general elections paving the way for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to form the government, will the BJP and its communal allies like Shiv Sena, Sangh Parivar and Bajrang Dal give up their age-old ambition to transform India into a Hindu state or will they continue with their philosophy of Hinduisation of India? After all, it is not Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, or Amit Shah, the BJP President, who are diehard Hindu nationalists, it is in fact a diehard mindset in India which they represent and which wants to “compensate for 1,000 years of foreign rule” in their country by reclaiming the supremacy of Hindu religion in India.

Modi losing elections will have four major implications as far as the political and security environment of India is concerned. First, the penetration of ultra-nationalist elements in Indian state institutions ranging from bureaucracy to judiciary and military may be halted. When the patronage of Modi and the BJP-led Hindu communal organisations for Hindu nationalists will be withdrawn, the process of Hindutva will suffer a serious jolt. However, can one expect a mindset promoting religious intolerance for decades to diminish if the BJP is defeated in Indian elections? Certainly, it will be a wishful thinking to expect communal forces to abandon their quest for the Hinduisation of India so easily.

Second, if the Congress-led UPA government is installed in New Delhi with Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister, it would mean the victory of all those forces who want to save India from becoming a fanatic and a fascist state. It would also mean a triumph of the silent majority of India who never in the history of their country supported those elements who commit violence and use religion for political purposes. Modi’s defeat may not only reverse the process of ‘Hinduisation’ of India but re-establish India’s image at the international level as democratic, secular and an enlightened state. Critics, however, argue that there is not much difference between the BJP and Congress as far as protecting religious minorities in India is concerned. Although unlike the BJP, Congress is not overtly using ‘Hindu card’, but over the last couple of years, Rahul Gandhi has shown his tilt towards Hindu religious rituals like frequently going to temple and also taking a position in support of banning cow slaughter in its ruled state of Madhya Pradesh. Yet, alienation of religious minorities, particularly the Muslim community in India, may negatively impact the BJP’s vote bank and the UPA may benefit from such a situation. Indian Muslims may consider Congress as a lesser evil than the overt communalist BJP but possesses serious misgivings vis-à-vis mainstream political parties who after coming to power continue with the policy of discrimination and violence against the beleaguered Muslim community.

Third, if Modi loses Indian elections, one can expect some betterment in the grim and pathetic situation in the India-occupied Kashmir (IOK). Unlike the BJP which has openly called for revoking articles 35-A and 370 of the Indian constitution which call for granting special status to IOK, Congress has no such policy. In fact, Modi often accuses Congress leadership, particularly its first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru, of creating an existential crisis in the occupied state by denying Indian nationals the right to vote, buy property and permanently settle so as to ensure the demographic status quo. For the BJP, articles 35-A and 370 are constitutional impediments to absorbing IOK fully into the Indian Union. However, it is a stark reality that both the articles were violated by successive Indian governments including those belonging to Congress by withdrawing privileges like the disputed state having its own president and prime minister. In fact, large-scale military crackdown in the IOK, particularly in the Valley, reached its peak during the rule of Congress. A thin difference between the policy of the BJP and Congress on Kashmir is that the former outright wants to annex IOK whereas the latter calls for a political settlement through dialogue instead of using power.

Whosoever comes to power in New Delhi after May 23, one thing is certain that the BJP in its five-year rule has deepened Hindu nationalism so much so that it will be difficult for a UPA government to reverse the process of Hindutva. To restore secularism and religious tolerance in India which became a victim of the BJP’s tide of Hinduism, the future government of India will have to ensure strict adherence to the rule of law which means the police, security forces, bureaucracy and the judiciary must not take sides in case of any violent communal act and must ensure protection of religious minorities. In the last five years of the BJP rule, dozens of acts of mob lynching of Muslims on account of cow slaughter not only claimed many lives but also augmented the level of insecurity and fear among Indian Muslims. Likewise, a non-BJP government at the centre will have to take several damage-control measures in IOK like controlling the excessive use of force and reducing the deployment of Indian military in the region. To regain the trust of the Kashmiri Muslims will be a hard task because of years of excessive human rights violations.

The foremost challenge of a non-BJP government in India will be to normalise its relations with Pakistan and to resume the SAARC process which got jeopardised in the wake of the Uri attack in September 2016 and the refusal of India to participate in the 19^th SAARC summit which was scheduled to be held in Islamabad. Modi’s policy of trying to isolate Pakistan after the Uri incident by creating the drama of surgical strikes affected India’s image and credibility the world over. During his five years as Prime Minister, Modi and his allies did everything to malign Pakistan, terrorise Indian Muslims and unleash the process of ethnic cleansing in IOK. Reversing such policies, which became a part of societal and state narratives, would be a gigantic task for a non-BJP government.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 17^th, 2019.

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