As the global power vacuum deepens…

A recent warning about the growing vacuum and schism in the global power system was given by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres when he addressed the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on January 24. His concern and caution to the world about dysfunctional ties between the United States, Russia and China along with lack of consensus on meeting global economic and environmental challenges cannot be overlooked and should be taken seriously.

In his address to WEF, Guterres warned that, “the relationship between the three most important powers, Russia, the United States and China, has never been as dysfunctional as it is today. We no longer live in a bipolar or unipolar world, but we are not yet in a multipolar world. We are living in a world in which global challenges are more and more fragmented, and the responses are more and more fragmented. If this is not reversed, it is a recipe for disaster.” It is high time to examine the fault lines in global power structure namely leadership vacuum and the deepening of void triggering crises, which as rightly pointed out by the UN Secretary General, can be “recipe for disaster’.”

The World Economic Forum, which is regularly held every year in the Swiss city of Davos, provides a platform to the representatives of global North and South to discuss issues which not only cover economic but also security, political and environmental challenges. More threatening than dysfunctional nature of relations between the major powers is the impending environmental catastrophe. The Paris Accord of December 2015, which provided an opportunity to deal with the menace of climate change, faced a setback when US president Donald Trump announced that he would pull his country out of a multilateral treaty which pledged to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

The UN Secretary General in his speech in Davos termed climate change a fundamental threat to human survival as he rightly pointed out that, “In my opinion it is the most important global systemic threat in relation to global economy. Climate change is running faster than what we are. I believe we are losing the race.” Will the major stakeholders of global security, economy and environment adhere to what the UN Secretary General warned in Davos or they will be as indifferent to such lethal threats as before?

Four major issues shape the prevailing global trends augmenting serious challenges to the survival of human civilisation. First, the leadership vacuum because of growing cleavages among major international actors namely the United States, China, Russia, the European Union and India. Lack of consensus on vital issues among such players is a major reason of growing power vacuum. Technically, the world is still unipolar because the United States is unwilling to leave its predominant position in global affairs. For instance, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) global military expenditures during 2018 were 1.7 trillion dollars out of which the share of America was 700 billion dollars. Furthermore, despite its swelling debt of $22 trillion which is more than its GDP, the United States is still the world’s number one economy. Its edge in science and technology is unmatched. Yet, Washington is unable to play a leadership role in global affairs particularly during the administration of President Donald Trump. American discords with China, Russia and Europe continue to question the US’ ability to play a responsible role in world affairs.

Mounting leadership vacuum is also evident from the fact that leaders like President Donald Trump of the United States, President Vladimir Putin of Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel share common characteristics like ultra-nationalism, aggressive, chauvinistic and inward mindset. They are joined by likeminded leaders from Brazil, Italy, Poland and Hungary who reflect so-called populism based on anti-immigration and anti-liberal rhetoric. Second, in the last few years there has been the sharp widening of economic gap because 26 richest people own 50% of global wealth. Since overwhelming majority of such wealthy people is from the global North, the global South, which has mass poverty and under-development is a major sufferer of asymmetrical distribution of wealth. Critics argue that institutions controlled by the West like the World Economic Forum, Group of Seven, World Bank, Asian Development Bank and International Monetary Fund are primarily interested in maintaining status quo by denying Third World countries the space in economic arena and sustaining their edge on global finance, trade and technology.

Historically speaking, efforts on the part of the global South for a New International Economic Order (NIEO) under the North-South dialogue during 1970s and early 1980s failed because of the refusal of rich countries to transfer technology, resources and to reduce the debt to the Third World or the global South. Currently, there is no leadership role of major powers in dealing with issues which widen economic and technological gap between developed and developing countries. Same is the case with the Third World, where the lack of leadership deepens inter-and intra-state conflicts, poverty, underdevelopment and corruption leading to extremism, violence and terrorism.

Third, the deepening of global power vacuum is also the result of environmental crisis in the shape of global warming and climate change. The UN Secretary General in his WEF address lamented the non-implementation of Paris Accord and made it clear that there is lack of political will and that “we are moving dramatically into a runaway climate change if we are not able to stop it”. The Paris Accord, which provided a ray of hope to curtail the release of greenhouse gases and emission of fossil fuel from industries and factories is subverted by the United States because of its announcement to withdraw from that accord. And it is not only the US but also Brazil which has threatened to leave the Paris Accord. If major industrialised countries, along with their counterparts in the global South, fail to deal with the growing surge of environmental pollution resulting in rise in global temperature, rise in sea level and deforestation, the world will soon experience the single manmade disaster. Finally, vacuum in global power structure is because of the erosion of the United Nations and its inability to play an assertive role to resolve deadly conflicts and establish peace.

Major flashpoints of the world stretching from Syria to Yemen and Afghanistan tend to expose the UN’s leadership role in failing to deal with issues which are a cause of millions of deaths, injuries, displacement and enormous material destruction in the last 20 years. Therefore, it is not entirely the dysfunctional ties between the United States, China and Russia which is termed by the UN Secretary General a major cause of global crisis, but in reality it is the failed status of the UN which has provided space to the United States, Russia and Israel to militarily intervene in Syria. Same is the case with Yemen, where without any UN authorisation, Saudi Arabia, the US, Iran and the UAE are involved in the excessive use of force. Likewise, the use of force in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan by external and regional players is also done without any mandate granted by the UN.

Overall, one can witness the erosion of values and ethics in global politics and power structure which is reflected in blatant aggression, occupation and serious violation of human rights by the powerful actors because there is no check on their misuse of power. The looming anarchic world is thus the result of vacuum in the global power structure. 

Published in The Express Tribune, February 1^st, 2019.

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