Opinion

Pakistan’s nuclear security

We need to deny adversaries diplomatic leverage against our nuclear capability and rebuild the military's credibility.

Adil Sultan June 09, 2011

The issue of Pakistan’s nuclear security is once again generating headlines. Our public reiterations that our military facilities cannot be attacked may not be able to provide desired assurances to the public after the PNS Mehran attack.

The majority of Pakistan’s analysts are of the opinion that recent incidents of terrorism are part of a well thought out strategy to discredit the military and build a case for the international custody of Pakistan’s nuclear assets. The evolving situation therefore merits serious review with an objective to restore confidence in Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence and in the military.

The important question is — can the US really take over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons? While US military capability may not be in doubt, their knowledge of all of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and their locations is.

With reportedly wide dispersal, terrain strength and strong terminal defences, the US would indeed be on a suicidal mission, which would most likely evolve into a truly ‘MAD’ (mutually assured destruction) scenario.

What is more likely is that a terrorist attack on any nuclear installation could provide an opportunity for the US and its allies to build a case for international oversight or the custody of Pakistan’s nuclear assets through a UNSC forum.

There is, therefore, a need to deny adversaries the diplomatic leverage against our nuclear capability; and to rebuild the credibility of our military by recapturing space for national sovereignty that is shrinking due to an increasing number of terrorist attacks and due to coercive diplomacy by our ‘allies’.

It is imperative that we review our overall strategy and reset engagement parameters with both ‘allies’ and adversaries. Some of the possible measures that we could contemplate under the current environment are: (1) Bring out evidence of foreign involvement, especially India, in sponsoring terrorist attacks in Pakistan. (2) Launch a diplomatic offensive to expose external elements involved in domestic destabilisation. (3) If India could threaten Pakistan with surgical strikes after the Mumbai incident, Pakistan can do the same in Afghanistan — provided we are able to build an effective case. (4) Resort to controlled escalation of our troops to demonstrate the seriousness of our intent. (5) Similarly, a blockade of Nato logistics in Pakistan, the slowing down of intelligence cooperation, expulsion of CIA agents, etc provides plenty of leverage to Pakistan. (6) Supplement military potential through nuclear deterrents. Earlier statements by senior decision-makers provide for such a caveat; Pakistan could contemplate the use of nuclear weapons ‘if the very existence of Pakistan as a state is at stake’. (7) Build public opinion and confidence through the media.

The proposed course of action that may entail controlled escalation could help regain national pride, bring back credibility to the armed forces and restore confidence in the nation’s nuclear deterrent. It may generate international criticism, but maintaining the status quo is not an option any more.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 10th, 2011.

COMMENTS (38)

ssb | 13 years ago | Reply What is wrong with ET? This article is a travesty.. please can we think with some insight? I dont usually read ET, but every few months when i come back, i get more disillusioned with the kind of writing, and input going in this newspaper. As a nation, we need to stop blaming others for our failures, stop protecting those, who openly loot and plunder you.

Sher | 13 years ago | Reply Well, undoubtedly the article was great... Surprisingly, this was not all about securing Nukes, but, most of the people who went through this article have concentrated more on saving Pakistani nukes :) Moreover, its great to know that Zaid Hamid has become a pain in a_ _ for many Indians at least. Americans want Pakistan to be captured, so as it is the dream of Indians for many years and now they want to fulfill that dream with the help of Israelis because of NEW WORLD ORDER. Russia is still there.. ok not USSR, but its still surviving to sort USA out. Israelis are not strong enough to survive this coming World War III, who has promised them the promised land forever.. haha...no one. Iran is surviving without friends so shall Pakistan. Its just a matter of one trigger, which has reached middle east and now approaching soon. Hold your Langots tight. As far as threatening to use nukes is concerned, I think using nukes is far better than threatening. These so called allies are adversaries in actual. Nato is supplying ammunition to the rebels all around the world, Nearly all terrorist attacks are planned by so called diplomatic Visa holders in Islamabad or Lahore or Peshawar. If you want evidence, so for that you have to wait.. its not far now. Who made Usama or Saddam? I didnt know about Alqaeda before 9/11 I hope you dont need articles and related links to what Americans themselves say about that.

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WQ | 13 years ago | Reply A thought provoking and action-oriented article - for THOSE WHO MATTER. This issue here is not of actual security of nuclear weapons from State (read US) or non-state actors (Al-Qaeda) - for reasons highlighted by the writer - but, how this issue is being used as a pressure building tactic to extract 'more' from Pakistan in war on terror. The OBL Ops and Mehran Base attack were directed to hit the 'centre of gravity' i.e. Pakistan's armed forces, for the same malicious purpose.

Thucydides | 13 years ago | Reply One tends to wonder why do most critics of this article, instead of debating the suggestions rationally and objectively are resorting to only blaming and maligning institutions rather than coming up with their own strategy and suggestions regarding how to improve the situation. Clearly emotions are no substitute to thinking.

Kashif Latif Khan | 13 years ago | Reply Very well written article and recommendations. Now some one in the GOP should wakeup from their deep sleep and have the courage and will power to go about it.

Rehmat | 13 years ago | Reply @observer: Excellent poibt by point response. Very well articulated.

Rehmat | 13 years ago | Reply @Summer Festival: You say"The Indians too have said that they would use nukes in response to any attack on Indian forces by nuclear or non-nuclear WMDs on Indian forces anywhere inside or outside India". This is factually incorrect. India has had a No first use doctrine since 1998 and has never moved from that. No first use means it will only use nuclear weapons, if nuclear weapons are used against it. It does no keep it vague such as ' if our country is threatened, we use the right to use nuclear weapons' because that kind of threat exists in any war situation rather than only a nuclear attack. So while Pakistan consistently (except for a brief while when Zardari reciprocated the No first use policy of India but was forced to withdraw his statements) constantly bragged about using nukes. This in turn has created the impression outside Pakistan that Pak could use nukes. Additional threats will only solidify this apprehension on part of others and not benefit Pakistan in any way.

observer | 13 years ago | Reply @Adil Sultan Let us examine your recommendations one by one 1) Bring out evidence of foreign involvement, especially India, in sponsoring terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Err, and in case there is no such evidence? Manufacture some? (2) Launch a diplomatic offensive to expose external elements involved in domestic destabilisation. Provided there is such an involvement. I do not see the same in Taseer, Bhatti, Shahzad cases at least. (3) If India could threaten Pakistan with surgical strikes after the Mumbai incident, Pakistan can do the same in Afghanistan — provided we are able to build an effective case. Indian 'threats' did not yield much, I just hope Pakistani 'threats' are more effective. And there is this business of Afghanistan having a better case for 'surgical strikes' via the Haqqani presence. (4) Resort to controlled escalation of our troops to demonstrate the seriousness of our intent. This is hilarious. How do you 'control' the retaliatory escalation from the other side? (5) Similarly, a blockade of Nato logistics in Pakistan, the slowing down of intelligence cooperation, expulsion of CIA agents, etc provides plenty of leverage to Pakistan. Immy Khan, Pasha and Kayani are doing precisely that. Drone strikes are still on and so are the other activities. (6) Supplement military potential through nuclear deterrents. Earlier statements by senior decision-makers provide for such a caveat; Pakistan could contemplate the use of nuclear weapons ‘if the very existence of Pakistan as a state is at stake’. And pray what have the 'nuclear deterrents' been doing if not 'supplement military potential'? And if first use is resorted to, rest assured the 'existence' will surely turn into non-existence. (7) Build public opinion and confidence through the media You mean more Zaid Hamids, Ahmad Quraishis etc and less Saleem Shahzads, Hoodbhoys and Ayaz Amirs.You are almost there.

Haley Kahn | 13 years ago | Reply Excellent article Adil. This piece is a breath of fresh air amongst hordes of articles that are bashing Pakistan Army and the nuclear establishment. Criticism for the sake of criticism is neither healthy nor constructive. It is very easy to criticize others but it is very difficult to rectify a problem. Only optimism and a problem-solving attitude can help an individual/group/state to resolve the issue at hand without jeopardizing the interests (national interests in case of a state). Hats off to you Adil for pointing the way out of this quagmire that the Pakistani decision-makers face.

BuZz | 13 years ago | Reply Very well written, I would specially agree with the comments from Mobasher, I too think its unfortunate that people have been too busy drinking the kool-aid of the lamestream media. Our nation is dead and does not want to think like the author. They just want to be entertained by spicy news and have themselves glued to the TV (read idiot box). So go ahead enjoy your favorite political talk show. While the brains save Pakistan.

mahmood | 13 years ago | Reply There is simply no credible reason why the USA would use terrorist to attack Pakistan. You don't need outside interference to discredit the Pakistani military - they seem to do that job on there own. With the advent of the internet one can readily determine the actual performance of the Pakistan military -- apparently few in Pakistan have bothered to Google the battle/performance of their military. Pakistan is considered the Nexus of Terrorism and has little (if any) diplomatic leverage to use - the fact that this article is discussing ways to defend itself from your most important ally is convincing evidence of how few friends you have. If Pakistan has any evidence that either India or the USA is helping terrorist attack Pakistan why hasn't it already used such evidence? Withholding that evidence serves what purpose? It's one thing to buy into a popular conspiracy theory it's another to provide a shred of evidence which supports it. After you cutoff NATO supplies - what's next? That's the last lever you have on NATO or the USA. What's to prevent them from cutting off trade, military embargo, escalating attacks etc. Authors argument maybe popular but that doesn't make it correct or even reasonable.

Mobasher Zein | 13 years ago | Reply Adil: I thought it was a well-written and cogent article on how to safeguard our strategic assets. It is unfortunate that few people on this forum really understand how inter-state relations are conducted. They have been too busy drinking the kool-aid of the lamestream media. Expect a false flag event to initiate a US sponsored multilateral initiative to capture our weapons program.

Meekal Ahmed | 13 years ago | Reply Resorting to a first-strike use of nuclear weapons if our very existence is threatened? Sounds very brave. But what will be left of us when we have to deal with the retaliatory strike?

A. A . Shah | 13 years ago | Reply Although I tend not to be alarmed so quickly and may have different views from what Mr. Adil Sultan has written above, I do understand and agree with the overall message his is trying to convey. The issue of our nuclear security is twofold: i. Threat from the terrorists ii. Threat from the U.S either going to UNSC or trying to take over the nuclear weapons The 2nd scenario is more dangerous then the 1st one as any U.S move to disarm or capture Pakistan's nukes would cause mutual destruction or damage to both sides (MAD). In the first scenario terrorist may be able to cause damage of varying extent to the nuclear facilities, but I do not believe they would able to reach the nuclear weapons themselves. In all the major attacks terrorists have not been able to take away anything. There worst attack was PNS Mehran where two P3C Orions were destroyed. But there is a difference between P3Cs and nuclear weapons. Nukes are not laying in the open air and unguarded. The second scenario becomes very dangerous because that may prompt Pakistan to weaponize and deploy its nuclear weapons. That would bring not only Pakistan but greater surrounding region to a halt. Any military action by US for sure will result in a military response by Pakistan. Any diplomatic offensive by US for sure will meet non-compliance from Pakistan. In either case it smells like a great war in the making. Before either or both scenarios happen, I think we need to consider some of the above points laid out by Mr. Adil Sultan. Especially that the awareness has to be brought to the public and Pakistan needs to put its clear case in front of the domestic audience and the international community.

Cautious | 13 years ago | Reply If the USA wants your nukes then it's first alternative is to use it's considerable political and economic leverage to obtain them. You will find yourself under UN sanctions, economic embargo from the West, restrictions on travel etc ... the "land of the pure" will find it almost impossible to survive without trade and assistance from the "not so pure" infidel West. Further -- if Pakistan had any shred of evidence that India or the USA was behind terrorist attacks then why haven't they provided that information already? Like most conspiracy theories it takes on mythical proportions without a shred of evidence. It's clear to the rest of the World that your terrorist attacks are the end result of your inability to control nasty people who you previously viewed as "strategic assets". Lastly --- once you cut off supplies to NATO --- what have you got left? NATO will reroute their supplies (albeit at more expense) - and there is no reason left why NATO or USA should show any restraint on attacking terrorist inside Pakistan - no reason not to use manned aircraft or put boots on the ground.

Thucydides | 13 years ago | Reply Very well argued article. It is unfortunate that most of the comments from the readers reflect more bias than reason and logic. Disagreement is part of debate, but needs to be based on arguments and facts. The human insecurity at the public level in Pakistan is a consequence rather than a cause of the problem and the author has recommended ways to change policy, which could also hopefully rectify and reduce the consequences being faced by the public as a result of the sub-conventional war being waged by the enemies of Pakistan in different garbs and various motives, of which discrediting the nuclear capability of Pakistan could well be one.

Sheheryar | 13 years ago | Reply If it is assumed that some foreign powers are against our nukes, this article is the best I've ever come across. Very logical, assertive and rational ways to maintain our nuclear deterrence.

Micheal | 13 years ago | Reply This type of article is questioning common man's wisdom. my request to Tribune Please avoid it.

harkol | 13 years ago | Reply @Author You might as well have said - Fight a war with USA and defeat it to save our nuclear weapons and our Jihadis!! Nuclear weapons & military don't secure a country. It is the unity, prosperity of people and friendly relations with other nations that secures the nation. What needs securing is not the Nuclear weapons but social security and economic growth of Pakistan. USSR broke up even when they were a strong Military nation. Israel is strong, even though they are an insignificantly small nation.

Star | 13 years ago | Reply There are various circles voicing the possibility of any move by the US to take control of Pakistan’s nuclear assets. Here question arises, how should we respond to such prevailing ideas … why there are such speculations in the first place??? They have to have some breeding ground? Whatever the answer may be, one just can’t be complacent and should shun them aside by labeling them mere conspiracy theories… particularly when associated events are strengthening those speculations. In response to such speculations, the writer has very aptly stated that US may have the will and capability to carry out such operations, but doesn’t have sufficient knowledge to ensure its success. And that weakness would work as a deterrent. Pakistan is not an easy prey for such an operation due to efficient systems over nuclear weapons. More serious concern, however, is the attempts to build a case against Pakistan for international custody of its nuclear assets. That’s an area where we seriously need to work. I agree with writer’s allegedly high sounding (as commented by few readers) but workable measures. Nation’s confidence is at the low and that needs to be restored. Today Pakistan is target of international criticism due to our internal weaknesses, so that attitude at national as well as at international front needs to be changed. We should stop playing victim, rather be proactive at all fronts. In order to stand erected, some difficult but necessary choices have to be made.

Huma Rehman | 13 years ago | Reply After noticing from the top comment to the bottom, no doubt how critical and challenging is the situation for an individual and for institutions to counter external threats and to argue with the internally injured state. Moreover, situation will become more complex when people lost their faith not only over its institutions but also on its blessed capability (nuclear weapons).I humbly want to suggest that all people commented here including me; need to refresh the concepts on overlapping dynamics of STATE security and NUCLEAR security. The steps discussed in this article are pointing towards the growing menace of terrorism and instability, which are understandably due to external factors. However, the internal factors are no doubt is a great concern and cannot be overlooked. The propaganda techniques prompted on Pakistan need to be understood with great vigilance. The other views of these steps argue the assurance of nuclear security to deter threats in real manner. This is a possible option to be rely on for actual security threat. The point of security proof evidences and information sharing, actually by discipline are not meant to be publicly discussed. Only the security assurance needs the faith, good will of masses to heal the wounds and cope with the fabricated caveats. The root causes of instability in Pakistan is due to number of issues as some are mentioned in above over whelming comments, but the other side of the picture is to build confidence what you have and how you can effectively utilize its(Nuclear Weapons) presence. Lastly, The causes of instability have instincts of REVOLUTIONARY impact and on contrary rebuilding, rehabilitation is EVOLUTIONARY in nature. So owning and realization of the strengths and weaknesses is very much important to address threats and opportunities...

Kunal Salunkhe | 13 years ago | Reply Obsessive–compulsive disorder

amoghavarsha.ii | 13 years ago | Reply Author seems not to know the basic purpose of nuclear weapons. It is more useful when not used. The moment it is used, it will be useless. That is what all nuclear weapon states are doing, including India. Pakistans requirement is not flexing its military muscles. Rather Pakistan should use more of its mental resource to think how to develope the common man.

Summer Festival | 13 years ago | Reply A thought provoking article. The threat of using nuclear weapons in response to grave threats to perceived national security interests by the strategic decision-makers has been integral to the nuclear doctrines of all states that built and deployed these weapons. The Indians too have said that they would use nukes in response to any attack on Indian forces by nuclear or non-nuclear WMDs on Indian forces anywhere inside or outside India. Such threats, and the signalling contained in this article appears to have been designed to "communicate" that such a option also exists for Pakistan. However, when hostilities break out, then the first casualty is the doctrine or declared thresholds for use of nukes. The idea behind such threats, therefore, most likely is to dissuade any potential aggressor from the use of force against Pakistan.

Strategist | 13 years ago | Reply Very Good Article, Despite all threats and weaknesses ,still there are options to consider for strengthening and rebuilding security.

Strategist | 13 years ago | Reply Rightly noticing from the the top comment to the bottom,no doubt how critical and challenging is the situation for an individual and for institutions to counter external threats and to argue with the internally injured state.Moreover, situation will become more complex when people lost their faith not only over its institutions but also on its blessed capability (nuclear weapons).I humbly want to suggest that all people commented here including me, need to refresh the concepts on overlapping dynamics of STATE security and NUCLEAR security. The steps discussed in this article are pointing towards the growing menace of terrorism and instability, which are understandably due to external factors. However,the internal factors are no doubt is a great concern and cannot be overlooked. The propaganda techniques prompted on Pakistan need to be understand with great vigilance.The other view of these steps argue the assurance of nuclear security to deter threats in real manner.This is a possible option to be rely on for actual security threat.The point of security proof evidences and information sharing, actually by discipline are not meant to be publicly discussed.Only the security assurance needs the faith ,good will of masses to heal the wounds and cope with the fabricated caveats.The root causes of instability in Pakistan is due to number of issues as some are mentioned in above over whelming comments,but the other side of the picture is to build confidence what you have and how you can effectively utilize its(Nuclear Weapons) presence. Lastly,The causes of instability have instincts of REVOLUTIONARY impact and on contrary rebuilding, rehabilitation is EVOLUTIONARY in nature. So owning and realization of the strengths and weaknesses is very much important to address threats and opportunities...

abhi | 13 years ago | Reply Very good article. I guess the auther bared open the options available for Pakistani establishment to defend the nukes. One option is very interesting, threating to use nukes to save nukes.

Subhash, India | 13 years ago | Reply Oh, I am just loving it !!!! Earlier I used to get my quota of daily humour from Youtube watching Zaid Hamid ; now ET has chipped in by publishing such articles. Hope there has not been a cange in your Editorial team recently.

Hahahaha | 13 years ago | Reply HAHA.... now time demands to leave discussion on baby toys (atomic bomb), shoulder to boost up economy, education, research, health, infrastructure, human right, human values, mutual respect, energy sector, honesty, justice, justice and justice. These are the main parameters of development not the not baby toys, 200 years outdates and their fashion shows/display all the times …. Weapons in hands, Gunsssssssssssssssss on shoulder and having nothing to eatttttttttttttttttt and nothing to wearrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. . Kindly World Research touching new horizons highly sophisticated ultra weapons and new worlds, tools, concept, discoveries than outdated things.

Hamayoun Khan | 13 years ago | Reply Adil shab! Very well-articulated article, indeed there is a threat to our nuclear weapons programme, and the intensity to that threat was well depicted by the unilateral invasion of our territory in OBL’s incident. No matter how hard the denial that came from Senator Kerry about our nuclear weapons programme, we cant just sit and hope that it will never happen.

Wali | 13 years ago | Reply This was/is happening in rural areas as usually. A person got new pistol/Gun, then he put that on shoulder and takes rounds in streets and roads of village to make sure to the people and show to the villager/people that he has pistol/Gun. Basically this is a highly stupid, immature act mostly commonly practice in Pakistan either in one form or other. Similarly being atomic bomb/power is the story of past forgotten 17/18 century. Nowadays new research and weapons have been developed. Research has opened new worlds, secret, new technologies and new weapons. Old fashion has gone and new style of life have been adopted But still for certain country like rural man old toys, guns still matter of honor…means having atomic power is nothing and having atomic bomb an old story/technology. So it is better develop or adopt a mature attitude in the right direction, all the time Pakistan atomic security , some will take it away is just immaturity…today the world has too much advance technologies then cute toy were called atomic bomb.

vasan | 13 years ago | Reply Absolute crap. The root cause of all these problems in Pakistan are due to 1.Army's control on finances,security and foreign policy 1. Strategic depth 2. Strategic assets By not commenting against any of these, the author exhibits ignorance of the root cause and possibly complicity with the problems What a pity.

Truthbetold | 13 years ago | Reply What a bad and nonsensical article! No logic, no substance and no facts! I am surprised Express Tribune allowed this nonsense to be published. It is nothing more than an illogical rant of an agent of the Deep State.

faraz | 13 years ago | Reply Muscle flexing will solidify the belief that we are an immature and irresponsible nuclear state which cannot fulfill the responsibilities attached with acquisition of nuclear technology. Diplomatic assurance and clearing the internal mess are the only options available. You seem to have no idea how much money is spent on troop mobilization; such senseless demonstration will prove to be the final nail in the coffin for our dying economy.

Chandler | 13 years ago | Reply "Bring out evidence of foreign involvement, especially India, in sponsoring terrorist attacks in Pakistan." If you have evidence of this, then what is preventing you from showing it to the world? "action that may entail controlled escalation could help regain national pride, bring back credibility to the armed forces and restore confidence in the nation’s nuclear deterrent." "Controlled escalation"(oxymoron?) can never be controlled - it can only lead to devastation.

Jerry | 13 years ago | Reply Adil Sultan A delusion is a belief that is either mistaken or not substantiated that is held with vehemence,it is defined to be a belief that is pathological,and is held despite evidence to the contrary , it is distinct from a belief based on false or incomplete information, dogma, stupidity, poor memory, illusion, or other effects of perception Furthermore, when a false belief involves a value judgment, it is only considered as a delusion

Thinking | 13 years ago | Reply Adil this editorial is quite non-sensical. Rebuilding Pakistan's credibility cannot be done by finger pointing at external factors. That strategy has already failed. Fool me once, okay. Fool me twice, I'm a fool. For the world to believe Pakistan, it has to show that it's going all out to defeat terrorism and is cutting all ties with terrorist. That will require a cleaning of house at the ISI and the military. Is Pakistan prepared for that? Finger pointing outside of Pakistan is what the government and intelligence agencies have promoted for years to deny their own culpability, corruption, and incompetence. You're just giving them a free license to continue it and doing a massive disservice to the people of Pakistan.

TightDhoti | 13 years ago | Reply Really? So your entire thesis is based on the assumption that the US will take our our nuclear weapons. why? Coz Zaid Hamid and some right wing nutters in America think so? Your 7 steps are nothing but backward steps of propaganda and raising rhetoric. All pointless..people are dying on a daily basis, and now we are hostage to our nuclear weapons which were supposed to make us safe.

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