Trump and Imran Khan

It was entirely unnecessary. Watch Trump’s interview with Chris Wallace again. He wasn’t even asked about Pakistan. It was a question about Admiral William McRaven’s criticism of Trump’s attitude towards media and his co-authoring of an open letter in support of former CIA director John Brennan titled "Revoke my security clearance, too, Mr President". McRaven is known for his role in the capture of Saddam Husain and elimination of Osama. Special operations leaders don’t decide the timing of such high-profile raids. It is the call of the highest offices in America. And yet Trump’s criticism was about delay in finding Osama. Suddenly it became a tirade against Pakistan and the monies that went to the country. Given that it was a recorded interview, the only likely reason why such an out-of-the-context comment made the cut seems to be a request from the US President or the White House Press Office. So, it appears to be a deliberate dig.

If it was premeditated and/or deliberate what could be the motive? When you look at the timing two things stand out. One, an IMF team was in Pakistan negotiating a possible bailout package. Two, the Prime Minister of Pakistan was in the UAE for a daylong trip with his team to negotiate a possible economic cooperation deal. Result? The IMF team soon returned reportedly without a breakthrough. No great news has so far emerged from Abu Dhabi either. Was it another manifestation of dog whistle signaling? Of course, it was. Trump then brought these comments to his Twitter feed. There are many questions about the motives, the timing and of the unintended consequences. But before that let us look at the response from Pakistan.

For any Pakistani it was a pleasant surprise to see their Prime Minister taking to Twitter and setting the record straight. Pleasant because on similar occasions during the past decade, the premiers would disappear leaving no trace. Don’t get me wrong. Other office-bearers would respond, Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif being one notable example. But given that for the most part the PML-N government did not have a foreign minister, this silence extended to the relevant cabinet ministers. Surprise because in the past none of our premiers used Twitter to respond. Most of them did not have a Twitter handle. None of them thought of setting up an official handle to clear the air. In this marked absence, the responsibility fell on the shoulders of the Foreign Office personnel. So, the Prime Minister Imran Khan’s timely tweets on the matter were very well received. There is a limit to which you can ostracise a people. After that limit a reaction is expected and if one doesn’t come you are deemed a helpless target. Hapless targets make excellent scapegoats and whipping boys. When your silence is taken for granted, people consider it a sign of complacency and your detractors have a field day. After a response to Indian Ministry of External Affairs’ undiplomatic presser and our PM’s address to the nation in the wake of the reaction to Asia Bibi verdict, this is the third time that scribes like me have heaved a sigh of relief. That there is someone to speak for us.

Now let us talk about the reasons behind Trump’s Pakistan bashing and consequences both intended and unintended. One ostensible reason is China. You will recall US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s statement on IMF extending a fund facility to Pakistan and the money ending up with the Chinese. China and America are busy in a trade tug of war. Hence it is argued that Trump doesn’t want any let-up in atmospherics till that is resolved. But there is something off about this argument. If past is any guide, we can say with comfort that regardless of the atmospherics, Trump will manage to strike a trade deal with the Chinese government. Plus, he needs Chinese help for a breakthrough with the North Koreans. The trade war with China can be used as an excuse but there is little chance that it provides the real motive.

The second possible reason is India. People often gawk at the extent of the mysterious Indian influence on Trump. We know Hindu hardliner groups endorsed him wholeheartedly in 2016 because of the anti-Muslim overtones in his campaign. We also know that he has huge business interests in India. That is probably why his Indian business partners were first to throw caution to the wind and meet him in the Trump Tower after his win. Soon after that he first met Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, a Hindu lawmaker friendly to India back then, for a possible cabinet opening and then appointed Nikki Haley, a politician of Indian origin, as the ambassador to the UN. When Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights released a report highly critical of Indian atrocities in Indian-occupied Kashmir, the US withdrew from the Human Rights Council. So the influence is there but I don’t see an immediate trigger. The timing is important.

Then there is the issue of Erik Prince, former head of Blackwater mercenaries, providing Mueller investigation access to his phone and email records. Big fireworks are coming in the Russia probe which now is about much more than just a probable Russian election meddling effort. Hint, hint: It now includes some Muslim nations too. Prince is based in the UAE and works as adviser to the government there. He has also more than once pushed for the privatisation of the US Afghan war and the US intelligence. This of course could not have gone down well in Washington. Some would want to connect this, Pakistan’s interactions with the UAE government for a probable bailout deal, Trump’s paranoia and anger about the Mueller investigation and Afghan war. But whatever the reason this only emboldens the forces of chaos and makes meaningful cooperation very difficult.

In the end, it is up to the US administration to decide whether it cares about its image on Pakistani streets or not. But it took us a long time to bring down anti-American sentiment to a manageable level. And this doesn’t help. It is again not our lookout how this demoralises the US forces when a man considered a war hero by Americans is berated publicly. For now, Pakistan feels happy that now it has a leader who can take a stand. And for dreamers like me there is hope that as in North Korean and Turkish cases, Trump eventually extends a hand of friendship. Something about alpha male behaviour pattern that begins with rebuke and ends with friendship.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 24, 2018.

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