Civil-military tensions subside?

The results of the recent Punjab by-elections have not been reassuring for the ruling PTI

The results of the recently held by-elections in Pakistan’s most populous province have not been politically all that reassuring for the ruling PTI. The margin of lead remains precariously narrow between the government and the Opposition both at the centre as well as in Punjab.

Some political pundits are attributing this setback in part to a number of U-turns the PTI-led coalition government took within weeks of taking over the reins of the government and in part to Punjab Chief Minister Sardar Usman Ahmad Khan Buzdar’s seemingly lame-duck leadership qualities and his seemingly limited understanding of Punjab politics.

Prime Minister Imran Khan while nominating Buzdar for the post had introduced him as a “humble politician” who knew “how the poor live” because as the PM said Buzdar’s house does not have electricity. However, it turns out that he is a man of means and a millionaire to boot!

And he turns out to be a real political turncoat as well. He has travelled from the PML-Q to the PML-N to Janoobi Suba to the PTI. The only elective office that he had held before being elected the CM was that of district nazim of Taunsa Sharif in 2001.

And during his political career spanning over 17 years his claim to fame has been two not very worthy episodes. One of which was a NAB case which was finally closed for ‘want of evidence’ and the other a murder case which has been declared a matter of mistaken identity by a media outlet.

So, no matter from which political angle you try to fathom the PM’s reasoning for nominating Buzdar for the coveted post of Punjab’s CM, you end up reaching a dead-end.

CM Buzdar’s involvement in the incident relating to midnight transfer of Rizwan Gondal, the former Pakpattan DPO, seems to have further deepened the widely held public perception that he was too weak a boss for a province whose population is more than the combined head count of the rest of the three provinces; but then perhaps that is exactly what the PM had wanted his nominated Punjab CM to be — a politically too weak an entity.

It seems that the PM was prepared to even pay a political price for what on the face of it had appeared like a politically unwise decision — a price as costly as losing in the by-elections a number of seats which were won with good margins except one in the general elections.

PM Imran himself or those who know Punjab politics from inside out seem perhaps to have come up with the idea of appointing a weak CM in Punjab probably to avert a situation like the one the then nationally popular PM, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, had faced when his trusted Punjab strong man Mustafa Khar began challenging him in 1974.

Later down the lane the then Punjab CM, Nawaz Sharif, had challenged the then PM, Benazir Bhutto, during 1988-90 so much so that her writ had been rendered totally ineffectual in Punjab. Finally NS replaced BB after the November 1990 general elections.

Next, leveraging his ‘popularity’ in Punjab Nawaz Sharif succeeded in October 1993 in ousting the party chief, Mohammad Khan Junejo, and rebranding the Pakistan Muslim League as the PML-N.

Next we see the then Punjab CM, Manzoor Wattoo, of the PML-J, junior coalition partner of the PPP, completely demolishing the senior partner in Punjab with then PM Benazir Bhutto’s writ (1993-96) once again rendered completely ineffective in the province.

Interestingly, one has witnessed heightened civil-military confrontation in the country thrice since 1970. Once during the 1972-77 period when PM ZA Bhutto’s PPP had enjoyed two-thirds majority in Parliament as well as in the Punjab Assembly, and then when PM Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N had enjoyed the same during the 1996-97 as well as 2014-2018 periods.

However, since the advent of PM Imran Khan’s PTI in July 2018, relations between the civilian government and the military seem to have improved for the better. The reason being the PTI has enough numbers to form the government at the centre and in Punjab but not enough to be able to govern the country without the crutches from outside the elected houses.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 20^th, 2018.

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