Making the weather

Talks between a United States delegation and the Pakistan government are ongoing as these words are written, but it is already clear from statements before the two sides met and after the first round of discussion that a resetting of the bilateral weather map was in process. The players, with the exception of the prime minister, are not strangers to one another and have met several times before in a range of contexts, but never at this level before and never with so much on the table, not all of it palatable. How this day ends is going to determine the shape of Pakistan’s foreign policy regarding the US and its allies for possibly years to come.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in response to a pre-meeting question, made it crystal clear that the reason why America is refusing to pay the $300 million it owes the Coalition Support Fund is that Pakistan had not done enough to satisfy the US regarding terrorist groups alleged to operate in Pakistan. He said this had been flagged to Pakistan over the past summer and came as no surprise. The prime minister and the foreign secretary may beg to differ.

Missing monies aside, the mood music emanating from the American side was generally conciliatory, and carried a message of a desire to reset relations with the new government and the new PM. Pakistan is acknowledged as key to an American exit from the eternal toxic bog that is Afghanistan. America wants out of its longest war, and Pakistan is one of the keys that will unlock doors with the Taliban. Cooperation in this mission will have a price on both sides. America also wants to turn down the volume in the Indo-Pak conflict, as well as get a closer understanding of the broader effects of the advancement of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor about which it has grave misgivings. Soon there will be an outline picture of what can be expected on the bilateral weather front, whether it is to be cloudy or fair, stormy or calm. Whatever the forecast may be, change is in the air.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 6^th, 2018.

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