Quadrilateral meeting of spymasters

Pakistan earlier this week hosted what was dubbed an unprecedented huddle of spy chiefs of Russia, China and Iran. While the Foreign Office here expressed ignorance, the Russian state news agency had quoted the spokesperson for Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service as saying that the emergence of Islamic State or Daesh in Afghanistan prompted the deliberations in Islamabad. “The conference reached understanding of the importance of coordinated steps to prevent the trickling of IS terrorists from Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan, where from they would pose risks for neighbouring countries,” Sergei Ivanov told the state-run media outlet.

The real agenda of this quadrilateral meeting aside, the coming together of intelligence chiefs of four countries is itself big news. The development indicates a deepening understanding among the key regional players, which during the Cold-War era were in opposite camps. What necessitated this paradigm shift is clearly the lingering conflict in Afghanistan. Pakistan and China may not have said it publicly but Russia and Iran are quite forthcoming in pointing a finger at the US for being behind the rise of Daesh in Afghanistan. It is because of this reason that Russia, Iran and China have now all maintained contacts with the Afghan Taliban. These countries believe that the Afghan Taliban can serve as a bulwark against the more lethal Daesh. That is why there is consensus among all the regional players that there has to be a peace deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Failure to negotiating end to the 17-year-long conflict would only increase the footprint of Daesh, which unlike the Taliban, has a global agenda. And that is the main worry for Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours.

But Washington is likely to view the Islamabad huddle with suspicion. This is because Afghanistan has unfortunately long been the battleground for the big powers competing for their strategic interests, although everyone, including the US, has now recognised the need for political solution to end the conflict. If that is the ultimate goal then certainly the scope of quadrilateral discourse can be expanded by inviting other stakeholders.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 14^th, 2018.

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