Turkey has chosen

The result is clear and unequivocal. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won the election in Turkey and Turkish politics and governance is going to be changed just as unequivocally. He addressed thousands of his supporters in Ankara as the official result was announced and said that Turkey had set ‘an example to the rest of the world.’ He spoke of a commitment to fighting ‘terroristic organisations’ as well as, very significantly, ‘to continue to the fight to make the Syrian grounds freer.’ The result was declared with 97.7 of the poll counted and those votes still uncounted were insufficient to alter the result whichever way they went. Although the opposition had not conceded it said that it would abide by the result, its own numbers being lower than predicted at 30.68 per cent. A pro-Kurdish party has passed the 10 per cent threshold and entered parliament, diluting the Erdogan majority in doing so.

The election was called almost on a whim and designed to give validation to the exceptional presidential powers that the Turkish Parliament ratified in 2017. With this result Turkey has transitioned to direct presidential rule. Erdogan will have complete control of the cabinet, the power to appoint senior judges and officials and this includes unelected vice-presidents. Additionally he will have the power to issue decrees that are binding in law but will not have passed through parliament which is now reduced to a rubber stamp and almost purely ceremonial institution.

Turnout for the election was an extraordinary 87 per cent of the electorate, in itself a number to ponder for democracies with a lesser record of participation — Pakistan for example. There seems to have been negligible fraud and the result is truly an expression of the majority will of the people. Thousands remain in custody post to the failed coup of 2016 and the media has either been bought up by the state or muzzled. The economy is far from robust — but a charismatic populist has consolidated his power perhaps for decades to come. We congratulate President Erdogan and wish him well.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 26^th, 2018.

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