Two pots are simmering as Eid approaches, both a part of the same meal. One is the commitment to cooperate with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) which is concerned about shortcomings in anti-money laundering and terrorist financing that have long worried the wider world. The other is a positive convergence in respect of matters Afghan. The Afghan Taliban have for the first time declared an Eid ceasefire and so has the Afghan government, both accompanied by some unusually emollient words from Lisa Curtis, a US point-person who reports to President Trump. Also in the mix is Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, who said that Nato and US forces would observe a ceasefire as well.
Why these are ‘of a piece’ is that the FATF concerns terror financing and are closely linked to Pakistan’s engagement with Afghanistan and its support for groups there that have been viewed by Pakistan as strategic assets in its struggle with India over the Kashmir issue. With the FATF shortly to make a decision as to the ‘grey-listing’ of Pakistan if it is not deemed to have ‘done enough’ the optics assume fresh importance. Whatever moves Pakistan makes — and they will need to be substantive — in respect of FATF compliance is going to be closely observed by the Americans and other stakeholders. Equally watchful of events unfolding are the Taliban who are putting a toe in the water of peacemaking. A peaceful Eid in Afghanistan with a ceasefire observed by all sides is going to be a significant shift. Pakistan needs to demonstrate that it has its proxies in Afghanistan reined in, the Taliban that their various iterations can be persuaded to make a token gesture of pacifism however small and the Americans that they can act rather more honourably than has been the historical case.
The ‘ifs’ are as many as the ‘maybes’ and it is a delicate balance and all sides have a lot to win or lose. Pakistan needs to abandon the sterile policy of equivocation that has served it ill, and exploit the window(s) of opportunity briefly open. A peaceful Eid would serve us all well.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 10th, 2018.
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