Speculating on Karachi's situation: Political turnaround or action replay?

As elections come closer, many parties are claiming to make a clean sweep

KARACHI: With the elections for both provincial and national assemblies taking place on July 25, all eyes are fixed on Karachi. It remains to be seen which party will win over Karachi.

Many parties are claiming to make a clean sweep in the elections, which includes Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP), Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA).

The MQM has won the elections with a clean sweep from 1987 to 2015, but the situation changed on August 22, 2016. According to political observers, there is now space for other parties to lay claim on Karachi. The vote bank of MQM is in a quandary and there is a possibility that due to the imbalanced situation, the voter turnout may be low.



On the one hand, all political parties are claiming to make clean sweep, while on the other, the MQM stands divided into three groups.
The MQM - London supporters are silent as of now, while the other two groups, the MQM -Pakistan PIB Colony and MQM - Pakistan Bahadarabad are divided over several issues. Both the groups are passing through a difficult period.

The PPP is opening its offices in MQM's areas at a fast pace and its leadership is convinced that it will win more seats as compared to the past. The MMA too has initiated its political activities. The MQM will, for the first time after 30 years, participate in the elections without its founder. With the party divided into groups there are no chances that they will contest in elections as a united force. The MQM-London has already announced boycotting the elections. This situation may help the PSP.

There are 11 to 12 constituencies in Karachi where 90% of the population is Urdu speaking and the MQM, for the past 30 years, has been securing a victory without sharing. However, MQM will now be participating in the elections as a divided entity and it remains to be seen whether the party will be able to secure those areas from where 90% of MQM's opponents bail used to be rejected such as Korangi, Landhi, Malir, Shah Faisal Colony, Liaqautabad, North Karachi, Nazimabad, Baldia Town, Orangi Town, Azizabad, New Karachi and other areas.



On the other hand, any party can win the elections from Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Defence Housing Authority, PIB Colony, Bahadarabad, Mehmoodabad, SITE, Metroville and Keamari.

There are a total of 21 seats for the National Assembly in Karachi, of which five seats are expected to be won by the PPP, according to political experts. Meanwhile, experts believe that no party can claim to win seats from the other 16 constituencies.

This tie means that it needs to be seen whether a political turnaround will take place or an action replay be seen like in the past.