Electoral blight

Considering that the forthcoming election truly is a landmark in democratic development in Pakistan being as it is the second peaceful transfer of power form one civilian administration to another — there is little cheer in the wind. The country ought to be in quietly congratulatory mode, but there are widespread apprehensions and inevitably these feed through to the performance of the economy. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) Survey launched by the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) shows that overall business confidence in Pakistan has dropped by seven per cent against the 21 per cent that was evident in November 2017 and now stands at 14 per cent. There is expected to be a fall in an election year anyway, but the results of the survey were influenced by pessimism in the retail and wholesale trade sectors.

It is not difficult to identify the factors that create such dips in confidence — the balance-of-payments problem that is a rolling disaster, alongside this a decline in forex reserves and a weakened exchange rate. Taken together those three factors alone are a body-blow to business confidence and a deterrent to inwards investment. Add in a deepening political uncertainty and the imminent and virtually certain decision by the FATF to blacklist Pakistan for its failure to limit terrorist financing and there is a near-perfect storm of negatives that cancel out the positive aspects of our democratic future.

None of the above is an indicator of imminent economic collapse, and the country will move forward. Forward but not as fast as it could, not as profitably and not reaping all the benefits of a much-improved security situation that has made for a safer country for all. Externally Pakistan continues to receive an almost universally bad or negative press, and internally the media generally are more preoccupied with the minutiae of inter-and intra-political party turf wars which does nothing to buff the international image either. ‘Could do better’ reads the end of term report for the current government federally and provincially, and institutional underachievement has become the hallmark of governance. We hope for better times ahead.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 24^th, 2018.

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