Agents of influence

Military warfare is undergoing a rapid transformation with each passing day. We are slowly moving towards a stage where victory or defeat may be decided without war. In other words, the objectives connected with a country’s military expeditions can easily be achieved without firing a single bullet. Such operations are no longer confined to battlefield tactics and strategies but have evolved into a hybrid form based on an interconnected series of cause and effect. The interrelationship of these actions cannot be reduced to a single field but its effects are observed in almost every sphere of national activity.

Hence, a commander needs to open up his or her mind and must not focus on military actions alone and should also take into consideration the cause and effect mechanism of other actions in different fields due to various military campaigns and vice versa. Unless the commander is not seeing the larger picture of warfare and understands completely the integration of his or her military decisions with other fields of national life, such a leader is bound to bow out unceremoniously in utter helplessness. The latest generation of warfare has seen emergence of variegated agents of influence who in the form of an individual, an organisation, a firm or an institution, private or public, national or international, exerts pressure to change direction of a conflict involving different antagonists in a target country or region. These influence agents try to change or challenge the cultural, social, economic, political, military, etc. policies of a target country through effective manipulation of electronic and print media, information technology and cyberspace. It is a point where policy decisions, abstract actions, tacit observations and off-the-cuff statements produce remarkable political results which cannot even be achieved through traditional military means.

Unorthodox techniques are now stretching beyond its prescribed borders and are well entrenched into the social life to confront the hybrid warfare challenge. A complete chain of processes exists whereby an event is created on any issue, real or unreal, factual or imaginary, blunt or sensitive, significant or insignificant, in order to exert pressure on an institution of a target country to deliver the desired results or review its policy relating to other fields which is connected with strategic accomplishments of certain hostile elements of a client state.

Once an event is created it is supported on multiple fronts, including social media, electronic and print sections, so that it is well publicised and connected with the basic theme of the objective of a client state for the consumption of general public. This is an important aspect of event generation, manipulation or support as the electronic communication technology helps to radicalise the minds of people so that a smaller event can be magnified through the lens of media houses. The influence agent then steps into the lime light and starts supporting or opposing the event with calibrated evidence distortion to substantiate its arguments. They urge and impact an institution, a department or a country to change the policy in line with their narration of facts.

There are three important stages through which these agents exert their control. The first stage encompasses linking of policy of an organisation with the strategic objective of a client state which is purported by an influence agent. It requires deft examination and assessment of the issue. The agents also inquire into the inherent differences such as sectarian, ethnic, provincial or linguistic, and explores the existing fissures owing to mismanagement, lack of attention and ill planning of the target country to strategise it with their objectives. Once it is interlinked, the influence agents start working to magnify it.

The second stage, therefore, elaborates the processes of its maximisation so that it catches national or regional attention and provides an objective base for agenda setting. The last stage is reached when the influence agent starts harping upon the issue and coins it in such a way as to put forward the objective of its client country. The more aggressive the approach, the more intensive is the pressure on the target country to change its policymaking.

The influence agent also gets rewarded in shape of a higher position or a favour or an expansion of operations to boost its hardworking, craftiness and manoeuvering. At this stage the agent is strongly embedded into the critical thinking process of the target country and becomes an important cog in its policymaking machinery. In this way it keeps on dominating the state institutions to maintain an effective control over it.

The agents of influence usually get information through three main sources. First, they receive information directly from the intelligence operators of the target country. They remain in touch with powerful intelligence echelons and gather relevant information with ease and comfort. Second, they receive the required intelligence indirectly. They nurture different contacts and try to decipher as much information as possible from them. This type of information gathering is quite laborious and time consuming since the influence agents need to establish connections for the purpose of obtaining some intelligence and these persons must have close relationships with the target for information gathering. Information technology has provided a good base for finding such connections on Facebook or any other closely integrated IT-based groups.

Third, when it becomes really difficult to access information directly or indirectly, then the influence agents need to rely on a hybrid approach to get the required details. In the modern age any one on the internet can become an influence agent to start the process of exerting control and pressuring a target country on any issue. We are now in the age of digital sabre-rattling and attack.

Finally, as the target country capitulates under immense pressure and media campaign, the influence agents may also enhance its followership and strengthen its position in digital sphere.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 6^th, 2018.

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