Darkening skies

The relationship between India and Pakistan is dipping lower by the day. Within the space of 24 hours Pakistan has decided not to return its high commissioner to Delhi until there is an improvement in the overall situation, and a cessation to the harassment of diplomatic staff and their families. This is but a step away from the withdrawal of diplomatic representation completely. Immediately after this India had made yet another clutch of threatening comments, with Home Minister Rajnath Singh saying on March 17^th that “no power in the world” can take Kashmir away from India and that if need be Indian forces can cross the border to protect its interests. There cannot be any statement more calculated to fan the flames, and it is grossly irresponsible.

Both countries accuse the other of aggressive acts, both sides periodically exchange artillery fire, both sides suffer both civilian and military casualties and neither side so far as is known has made incursions into the territory of the other. As noted previously in these columns, there exists a state of managed instability that fluctuates within a set of defined parameters. Outright conventional war is unlikely as is a nuclear exchange. Both sides maintain expensive — but aging in terms of equipment — armies and air forces and capable navies.

Viewed objectively Pakistan has made more effort to advance the cause of peace than has India in the last decade, and since Modi came to power in India nationalist forces have done all they can to keep the pot of instability bubbling. Stir in the Americans who are currently muscling Pakistan for not having done enough yet again and Pakistan begins to look beset by all sides with few moves in the playbook. Back-channels are doubtless busy but the domestic preoccupation is the coming election, not the nuances of multilateral relationships. Diplomatically the situation is not dissimilar to that of 2002 following the attack on the Indian parliament; the difference being that today Pakistan is leaderless and vulnerable with an interim government in the wings. We may be certain that Modi and his henchmen will be alert — and Pakistan must be no less so.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 18^th, 2018.

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