No advantage for India in US-Pakistan troubles: Analysts

Analysts say India's leverage remains strictly limited as long as US depends on Pakistan for Afghanistan conflict.

NEW DEHLI: Strained US-Pakistan ties following the US raid that killed Osama bin Laden are being seen in India as an opportunity to ramp up pressure on Islamabad over militant groups operating on Pakistani soil.

But analysts say India's leverage remains strictly limited as long as the US priority in South Asia remains the conflict in Afghanistan – for which Washington's dependence on Pakistan shows no short-term sign of waning.

In the immediate aftermath of bin Laden's death, India seized on the fact that the Al-Qaeda leader had been hiding barely two hours' drive from Islamabad as proof of the Pakistani establishment's collusion with outlawed militants.

"This fact underlines our concern that terrorists belonging to different organisations find sanctuary in Pakistan," Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram said.

Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna joined in, calling on world powers to help eliminate "safe havens that have been provided to terrorists in our own neighbourhood."

There was a triumphant "we told you so" tone to the comments from India which feels the international community – the United States in particular – has paid little more than lip service to its repeated accusations that Pakistan nurtures militant groups on its soil.

There were nods of approval in New Delhi as some US lawmakers accused Pakistan of playing a double game and demanded answers from Islamabad over how bin Laden could have stayed where he was undetected for so long.

The hope is that Washington will now take a tougher line with Pakistan and push Islamabad to crack down on militant outfits, especially the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which India says was behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

However, most analysts believe that hope will go unrealised because of the US reliance on Pakistani cooperation in its pursuit of extremists and the supply of 100,000 US troops stationed in Afghanistan.

Neighbouring Pakistan is crucial for Washington's efforts in Afghanistan both logistically and in the battle against Taliban fighters who shelter in the border region.

"The US isn't going to pull out the heavy diplomatic guns with Pakistan any time soon, no matter how high eyebrows may have been raised over bin Laden's hiding place," said Shashank Joshi, an associate fellow at the RUSI defence and security think-tank in London.

"And India doesn't really have the leverage to make the US do that. What can India threaten? 'Press down on the LeT or else'— what?"

US-India ties have warmed in recent years and Washington wants a long-term strategic relationship with New Delhi, but President Barack Obama's administration is not seen as giving India the same importance as that of his predecessor George W. Bush.

For all the commercial incentives offered by India's fast-growing economy, the United States cannot afford to alienate Pakistan and lose its help with the Afghan conflict.

"Far from unravelling the remaining threads in the strained US-Pakistan relationship, the bin Laden affair is likely to prove a temporary setback," said Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi.

"Washington may brandish new sticks, but carrots would still weigh more.

"When the dust settles, it is likely to be business as usual: Indians impotent as ever, Pakistanis playing both an ally and an enemy, and Americans doling out further multibillion-dollar awards to Islamabad," he said.

The United States has given $18 billion to Pakistan since the September 11, 2001 attacks, when the nuclear-armed nation officially ended support of Afghanistan's Taliban and agreed to work with America.

Most of the money has gone to the Pakistani military.

The Indian military has sought to add some steel to India's stance in recent days, with the army and air chiefs both suggesting that India was capable of emulating the US operation against bin Laden and launching surgical strikes against "terrorist" targets in Pakistan.

Pakistan reacted quickly, warning that any such "misadventure" would provoke a "very strong" response.

"This is all largely rhetorical on India's part," said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, a South Asia expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"India's options are limited, and I would be surprised if any senior Indian official really believes the bin Laden fallout will strengthen India's hand in any significant way," Roy-Chaudhury said.