Pakistan, India and growing water disputes

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Water crisis, intensified by the growing climate crisis, has become a major global issue. More than 2 billion people lack access to safe drinking water across the planet. Rapidly accelerating water crisis grips all major parts of the world including South Asia where glacier mass is shrinking, causing declining flow of rivers. Both India and Pakistan are facing a huge challenge of water shortage for the purpose of drinking as well as food production which is at risk of failure within the next few decades. The water system in these countries is already under unprecedented stress due to climate change. Thus, conservation of water resources through efficient irrigation and water governance and saving ecosystem as the part of hydrological cycle is key to managing water crisis. A peaceful solution to water disputes between the two countries is vital for sustainable water management.

Since its inception in 1947, Pakistan has faced hostile attitude from India. In the beginning, Pakistan faced the unfair distribution of financial assets, including water resources. However, the issue was resolved with the World Bank's mediation and the Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960 to distribute water resources between India and Pakistan. According to this water-sharing treaty, India was to control Eastern Rivers (Beas, Ravi and Sutlej) and Pakistan was to have control over the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab). A Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) was also set up to resolve water disputes through conflict resolution mechanism.

While the IWT has survived all kinds of tensions between the two countries, off late India has been violating it by constructing 330 MW Kishanganga dam on Jhelum and 850 MW Ratle Hydroelectric Project on Chenab. Pakistan has expressed concern over these developments at PIC. But India attempts to pressure Pakistan on the Indus River whose catchment area is shared by three nuclear powers: China, Pakistan and India. The demand for fresh water from Indus is already going to outstrip its supply. The future of the IWT is threatened by a recent Indian proposal to make an amendment to the treaty which would affect the flow of Indus River system, starting from Tibet and emptying into the Arabian Sea. The proposed amendment would also trigger transboundary disputes and deteriorate the already strained relations between India and Pakistan.

Pakistan has, however, made it clear to India that any discussion can only be conducted within the scope of the IWT. The treaty cannot be modified without the consent of both India and Pakistan. India's unilateral action would be considered a clear violation of the treaty brokered by World Bank which does not find any problem with the present water-sharing agreement. In fact, Prime Minister Modi wants to increase diplomatic pressure on Pakistan for political gains. He is trying to downplay the importance of PIC and make the treaty ineffective.

India is using the term bilateralism to confuse the issue as it has done several times in the past. History indicates that India has always taken unilateral actions to disrupt peace and achieve its diplomatic objectives through geo-political tug of war. For instance, through a presidential order on August 5, 2019, India unilaterally revoked Articles 370 and 35-A of its constitution to alter the special status of Kashmir. Indian intention behind the revocation of these articles is the snapshot of Modi's desires not only to absorb Kashmir in line with the promises made by BJP to its voters but also to control the supplies of green water to Pakistan. The growing water conflict between the two countries could be mere prelude to a serious confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Modi's failure to forcibly occupy Kashmir has taken new tactical shape in the form of his political engineering to manipulate the international media against Pakistan.

But the issue is not so simple. The international law binds the states to follow the treaties and boundary agreements. Under the Vienna Convention on the Treaties (1969), no agreement can be amended or terminated without the consent of the signatories. In the case of IWT, neither the World Bank nor Pakistan finds it necessary to make any amendment.